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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
It is a cliché that US presidential elections present momentous choices with long lasting consequences. In reality few live up to that billing. The difference between Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson in 1952 or between Bob Dole and Bill Clinton in 1996 was about questions of emphasis rather than big paradigm shifts. Even the more ideological contests, notably Lyndon Baines Johnson versus Barry Goldwater in 1964, or Jimmy Carter versus Ronald Reagan in 1980, were within the realm of normal. They offered sharply diverging visions; but in neither of those contests did any candidate question the rules of the game.
The only comparable election to the coming battle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024 was Trump against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Even then, however, Trump’s first shot at the White House was sufficiently chaotic to be an upset rather than an earthquake. So it is entirely rational to put this year’s election in a category of its own.
For the first time since the eve of the US civil war in 1860, the American system itself is poised to be on the ballot. But first the US Supreme Court is likely to have to make one of its most politically consequential judgments in decades: on whether the 14th Amendment can be used to bar Trump from ballots. Colorado’s supreme court and Maine’s top election official have already said he should be disqualified from standing in state primary ballots on the grounds that he engaged in insurrection against America. Assuming the decision goes in Trump’s favour, the legal wrangling will set the tone for the most contentious election Americans will have witnessed.
It is likely that a third-party candidate under the “No Labels” rubric, such as the West Virginia senator, Joe Manchin, or Maryland’s former governor, Larry Hogan, will complicate the outcome. Separate bids by Robert Kennedy Jr, or the scholar Cornel West, could also skew the electoral college in unpredictable ways.
The basic choice, however, will be between a president who represents the US democratic system and a man who has vowed to rip up the rules of the game. Trump is explicit that he would invoke the Insurrection Act that would allow him to deploy the army on the streets to quash protests. He would also use the Department of Justice for personal vendettas — including repeated vows to jail Bill Barr, the former attorney-general, John Kelly, his former chief of staff, Mark Milley, the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and the “Biden crime family”.
He would also fire federal civil servants who fail loyalty tests. If the courts are unable to hold a defeated Trump to account for his litany of alleged crimes, it would be quixotic to presume they could act as a check on him after he was back in office.
US democracy is at stake. But the state of the economy and Trump’s trials will have a bigger impact on the electorate’s mood. December’s signal by the US Federal Reserve that the interest rate cycle has peaked was Biden’s best news in a long time. If the cost of borrowing starts to come down in time, he will see an improvement in his numbers.
Likewise, if Trump is convicted of a criminal offence — particularly at the trial in March on his attempt to overthrow the 2020 election — independent voters will take notice. The irony is that opinion polling suggests the future of democracy is not yet at the forefront of voters’ minds. Biden has partly himself to blame for that. Democrats have so far been weak at spelling out exactly what is at stake. There is still time to rectify that. For 2024, there can be no more urgent task.
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