Standing in front of a large American flag at a busy veterans’ hall in Rochester, New Hampshire, this week, Nikki Haley made her closing pitch.
“I voted for President Trump twice. I was proud to serve America in his administration. I agree with a lot of his policies. But rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him — and y’all know I’m right,” said the former US ambassador to the UN.
With just days to go until the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Haley, who turns 52 on Saturday and was also previously the governor of South Carolina, is in the fight of her political life.
After a disappointing third-place finish in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, she is betting it all on New Hampshire, wagering that the state’s more moderate Republicans and independent voters will help her defy opinion polls putting her well behind Donald Trump.
Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire holds an “open” primary, meaning registered Republicans and independents can participate in the vote on Tuesday.
“Second place is assured [for Haley],” said Dante Scala, a political-science professor at the University of New Hampshire. “One of the few questions remaining is: can she do better? Can she make it close enough to make it too close to call on primary night?”
Haley has the endorsement of New Hampshire’s governor, Chris Sununu. But on Friday, Tim Scott, a senator from her own home state of South Carolina, was preparing to endorse Trump, according to a person familiar with the matter — a significant blow to her campaign, given that the primary race will move there after New Hampshire.
The latest FiveThirtyEight average of polls in New Hampshire shows Trump with the support of about 47 per cent of likely Republican primary voters. Haley is on about 34 per cent. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who pipped Haley to second spot in Iowa, has just 5 per cent.
That has allowed Haley to claim she is in a two-person race with Trump in New Hampshire — and trade barbs with the former president in the final burst of campaigning.
Trump has responded in recent days — a sign his campaign thinks Haley is a threat — in stump speeches, social media smears and a barrage of television advertisements that seek to undercut her standing with conservatives and independents.
“I know Trump threw a temper tantrum about me last night,” Haley said in Rochester, New Hampshire, before disputing claims made about her in several of his campaign ads.
“You’re going to hear a lot of other things, but this is what I’m going to tell you,” she added. “While he’s lying about me, I’m going to tell you the truth about him.”
That message was mostly well received by voters in the veterans’ hall. Many in the room said they were independents and had voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
Steve, a 74-year-old independent from Dover who declined to give his surname, called Haley a “breath of fresh air”, adding: “Trump is a cancer as far as I am concerned.”
Rocky Rand, 67, from Rochester, attended the Haley rally with his wife and son. All three said they planned to vote for Haley next week. “In a lot of ways, it is a vote against Trump, honestly.”
Others were more sceptical about the political tightrope Haley is walking, trying to win over moderates without alienating conservatives who still favour Trump. Some said Haley had been too soft on him, especially over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election result and his ongoing legal issues.
Several voters were disappointed Haley had not taken questions from the crowd. Her campaign has pushed back on suggestions that their candidate is increasingly closed off, saying she routinely stays for as much as an hour after her stump speech to take selfies with voters.
Scala at the University of New Hampshire said that Haley might not be doing enough to win.
“The caution, the unwillingness [to attack Trump], it almost feels like playing for second,” he said. “People don’t want to hear that, people don’t want to sense that. People want someone who is going for it.”
David, a former Republican voter turned independent who declined to give his surname, said he was disappointed with Haley’s stump speech and unwillingness to answer questions. But he still planned to vote for her “because Trump needs to be sent a message”.
“I cannot vote for Donald Trump under any circumstances,” David said. “He is just a criminal.”
Trump’s legal issues were also weighing on Jim Nye, a 74-year-old independent, who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 — and said he would again in November, if Trump were the Republican nominee.
But Nye said he would back Haley in Tuesday’s primary because he wanted to “see new blood”. He was also worried that Trump’s legal problems — including 91 criminal charges across four indictments — would overwhelm his campaign.
“My biggest fear is this fear that a lot of people have, Trump is going to end up between courthouse to courthouse to courthouse. The Democrats [are] going to beat him as much as they can, with anything they can,” Nye said.
Haley remains the underdog heading into the primary, partly because Trump’s support is so unwavering. He is also likely to pick up votes from people who backed Vivek Ramaswamy, the biotech entrepreneur who dropped out of the race and endorsed the former president this week.
The challenges Haley faces were on display the morning after the Rochester rally too, as canvassers for Americans for Prosperity Action, the well-funded group backed by conservative billionaire Charles Koch, knocked on doors and tried to convince people to vote for her.
AFP Action, which as a super Pac cannot directly co-ordinate with the Haley’s campaign, endorsed her in November, supporting her candidacy with money and manpower. By Thursday, a spokesperson said, AFP Action had contacted more than 210,000 voters in New Hampshire.
But after knocking on 30 doors in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, during a canvassing spree one morning this week, AFP Action had found just one voter who said they would vote for Haley. Two others said they would consider voting for her on Tuesday. The volunteers left behind leaflets promoting Haley. Returning to their cars afterwards, they found one ripped up and strewn across the bonnet.
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