Finns will vote on Sunday in their most consequential presidential election in modern history after the Nordic country joined Nato and neighbouring Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.
Finland’s presidents have a triple role. They lead the country’s foreign policy outside the EU, are commanders-in-chief of its armed forces and, more symbolically, embody the nation’s values.
“It’s a very critical time in Finnish and European history. One should not underestimate the challenges of leading foreign and security policy in the current environment. It’s a very tough environment for small states, especially small frontline states like Finland,” Olli Rehn, a former Finnish minister and EU commissioner who is also running for president told the Financial Times.
A long campaign between a bevy of establishment politicians who agree on most of the big foreign and security policy issues has been disrupted in recent weeks by the harsher and more populist rhetoric of the former leader of the anti-immigration Finns party, Jussi Halla-aho, who has been rising in the polls.
On Sunday, Finns vote in the first round of the election to find a successor to Sauli Niinistö, who steps down after completing two six-year terms. The top two candidates who emerge on Sunday will then face off against one another two weeks later.
The latest poll from national broadcaster Yle put former prime minister and longtime frontunner Alex Stubb on 27 per cent, ex-foreign minister Pekka Haavisto on 23 per cent, Halla-aho on 18 per cent, and Rehn on 14 per cent.
Stubb is a one-time foreign and finance minister who most recently has led a policy research centre at an EU-funded outfit in Italy, the European University Institute. He told the FT that Finland’s location with a 1,340km-long border with Russia meant the country’s importance had only increased since the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, “Finland suddenly became a direct frontline state”, Stubb said. “For the US, Finland is strategically one of the most important countries in the world right now,” he added.
Haavisto, a former Green party leader who is running as an independent, conceded that it was hard to find “very big political differences” between the candidates on issues such as Nato, supporting Ukraine, and dealing with Russia.
“It’s very much a question of personalities, experience, working on difficult foreign policy situations. I spent four years as foreign minister. My experience is hands-on. When I am touring around on the campaign, people are looking for safety, not party-political choices,” he said in a separate interview.
Stubb, a cosmopolitan Finn known for posting on social media about his Iron Man and triathlon exploits, has toned down his style, experts say, and instead focused on his eight years in government, including warning of the risks of Russian aggression back in 2008 when Moscow invaded Georgia.
Hanna Wass, vice-dean of social sciences at the University of Helsinki, agreed that there was “broad consensus” among candidates on security policy issues. “This might be rather reassuring for voters: whoever gets elected, Finland will follow the path taken after Russia’s invasion two years ago,” she added.
The joker in the pack is Halla-aho, a former firebrand leader of the Finns party and speaker of parliament. He has sparked controversy during the campaign by arguing that ministers and MPs should be born in Finland, lashing out at the national broadcaster, and filing defamation complaints against a Green politician and a comedian for calling him a “fascist”.
“The Finns party once again showed its ability to twist the electoral agenda by using themes related to sociocultural issues. They seem particularly skilful in applying them in an innovative fashion,” Wass said.
As a result, Halla-aho’s support has surged in recent days with some polls suggesting he could threaten Haavisto’s second place. However, all polls agree that Stubb, Haavisto, and Rehn would each beat Halla-aho in a second round run-off.
The new president will have to deal with issues such as Finland finding its place in Nato and fully integrating its military into the alliance. Many of the country’s politicians are upset that it has been placed initially in a command structure with the Baltic countries rather than its Nordic neighbours. Sweden’s imminent Nato membership may bolster Helsinki’s argument that the two of them should be together with Norway and Denmark.
Finland is also in demand in both Nato and the EU due to its significant defence spending and military preparedness. It has been one of the first countries to lay out a long-term plan for boosting artillery production, essential for both itself and Ukraine.
The country also has a tradition of dealing with Russia in a calm but firm manner, in contrast with some shriller comments from neighbours such as Sweden, Estonia, and Norway in recent weeks about the prospect of war with Moscow.
Modern Finland’s defining event was the 1939-40 Winter War in which it fiercely held out against the far greater forces of the Soviet Union, although it ended up losing territory (including the town where Stubb’s father was born). In the Cold War, Finland avoided policies that would overly offend Moscow — a strategy that became known as Finlandisation — but has always maintained its military capabilities unlike nearly all its neighbours.
“Russia is not going to disappear,” said Haavisto. “It is our neighbour now and will be our neighbour in the future. We are prepared for all types of scenarios. Our membership of Nato increases our security, increases the threshold for action against us.”
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