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Indonesians began voting on Wednesday to elect a successor to popular president Joko Widodo, with a former general leading the race become the next president of the youthful, resource-rich democracy.
Widodo has firmly put Indonesia the radar of foreign investors by overhauling the country’s economy in his 10 years in power, making it a critical player in ambitions for a global energy transition.
Prabowo Subianto, a former general with a controversial military past who promises to retain Widodo’s policies, is the frontrunner in the three-way race, with opinion polls putting his support at just over 50 per cent — the threshold required to win the election outright and avoid a run-off in June.
Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is constitutionally barred from running for a third term.
“Jokowi has been very good for the economy and we should continue that. I would vote for him again if I could,” said 27-year-old Muhammad, who declined to give his full name. “Prabowo has promised to maintain [Widodo’s] policies, that’s why he is my choice.”
Widodo spent heavily on infrastructure to connect the archipelago of 17,500 islands, introduced reforms that made south-east Asia’s largest economy more investor-friendly and wielded Indonesia’s vast nickel reserves to build an electric-vehicle ecosystem.
At stake is also the strength of democracy, established after bloody unrest that brought down the late autocrat Suharto in 1998. Political analysts and activists have raised concerns over Prabowo’s record in the military, the nomination of Widodo’s son as his running mate and the outgoing leader’s support for the former general.
More than 204mn Indonesians are registered to vote by punching nails in ballot papers across the country’s 38 provinces. Indonesians will also elect a vice-president and national and regional lawmakers.
Ahead of the election, Prabowo had a 25-30 point lead over the other two candidates, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, though pollsters said a run-off was possible.
Prabowo, who served in the military under Suharto, has tried to soften his image. The 72-year-old was discharged from the military in 1998 after being accused of ordering the kidnapping of more than two dozen pro-democracy activists in Jakarta, many of whom are feared dead. He denies the allegations.
Prabowo has appealed to younger citizens by campaigning extensively on social media. More than half of Indonesia’s eligible voters are younger than 40. His running mate and Widodo’s son, 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, has helped expand his appeal.
Gibran was allowed to run for vice-president after a ruling last year by the constitutional court, then led by Widodo’s brother-in-law. Widodo, who swept into power as an anti-establishment hero, is now accused of trying to build a dynasty to retain control after his term ends in October. He has denied the suggestions.
Widodo has gone further than any Indonesian president in showing his support for a preferred successor and has said continuing his policies is critical to Indonesia becoming one of the world’s top four economies by 2045, from its current position as 16th largest.
“This election is a test for democracy,” said Arya Fernandes, head of the department of politics and social change at Indonesia’s Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We are facing a difficult situation where there is a tendency for the incumbent to use his power to support Prabowo rather than being neutral.”
Widodo has defended his tacit support for Prabowo by saying the law allows presidents to campaign.
The election commission will announce official results in March. But private pollsters deployed across the country will predict the results based on sampling. These so-called quick counts have been reliable in the past and will be released shortly after polling concludes at 1pm across Indonesia’s three time zones.
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