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Nikki Haley lost the Republican nomination battles in Iowa and New Hampshire in January despite spending twice as much on ads and raising millions more than Donald Trump, her presidential rival.
The South Carolina Republican primary will test yet again whether Haley can turn money into votes.
The former South Carolina governor has this month spent about $11.4mn on ads in her home state — over $10mn more than Trump, according to AdImpact data. Last month, she raised $11.5mn, compared to $8.8mn for the former president.
But Trump is leading Haley by about 30 points there, according to 538’s compilation of polls.
So far, Haley has run a lean, well-funded, losing campaign that appears to be spending every dollar raised.
Donors have responded to her pitch: that she is the next generation’s standard bearer of Ronald Reagan-era conservative values, the only Republican alternative to Donald Trump, and the strongest candidate against Joe Biden.
At the start of February, the Haley campaign had about $13mn on hand — about how much she spent in January, according to federal filings released this week. Trump had $30.5mn, even though Haley outraised him in January.
Haley is already pledging to fight on to Super Tuesday on March 5, when 15 states award 35 per cent of the delegates for the Republican nomination. She has planned a seven-figure national ad buy, scheduled rallies in Minnesota, Colorado, and Utah for next week, and continues to rake in cash.
Stephen Navarro, a South Carolina real estate investor, told the FT that a fundraiser he co-hosted for her this week was a “big success,” raising $250,000.
“She restores dignity to the presidency,” wrote Navarro in an email. “No matter what happens in [South Carolina] I think she will continue because of this. Plus, no primary has been called this early ever so why should this one? Let it play out. Trump may come unglued.”
New York-based donor Eric Levine said: “She’s in it until someone officially gets enough delegates to become the nominee.”
Philanthropist Simone Levinson added, “There is more pressure from Nikki’s supporters to stay in the race than there is pressure from the political and media elite to drop out.”
Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney told reporters on Friday that they “know the odds”, but that if Trump won the GOP presidential nomination, Republicans would lose the White House and House of Representatives and pick up fewer Senate seats.
“He will not defeat Joe Biden in November and he will drag the entire Republican ticket down with him,” said Ankney. “We are going to continue to fight as long as we see that there is an appetite for our message — and so far we’re seeing that there is.”
After Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump appears to be on a cruise path to the GOP nomination, despite all of the criminal and civil cases against him.
Still, Haley has provided a way for traditional, conservative voters and donors to express their support for a pre-Trump Republican party.
In January, pro-Haley political action committees spent more than $28mn on ads — about double what pro-Trump groups spent, according to AdImpact.
Trump beat Haley in Iowa by over 30 per cent and in New Hampshire by 11 per cent.
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