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Scottish National party grandee John Swinney has emerged as the early frontrunner for first minister to replace Humza Yousaf as the nationalist administration seeks to restore stability to Holyrood.
Swinney, who has extensive government experience, has said he is actively considering standing after receiving many messages from colleagues urging him to run, despite having previously indicated his desire to step back from frontline politics to focus on his family.
The 60-year-old former deputy first minister could face a challenge from ex-finance secretary Kate Forbes, who came second to Yousaf in last year’s leadership campaign following former first minister Nicola Sturgeon’s departure.
Yousaf announced his resignation on Monday after his leadership descended into turmoil following his ruthless ousting of his coalition partners, the Scottish Greens. He quit ahead of two votes of no-confidence but will continue until a replacement party leader is found.
Senior SNP figures such as Stephen Flynn and Ian Blackford, the current and former heads of the SNP group at Westminster respectively, as well as Keith Brown, deputy SNP leader, have indicated their appreciation of Swinney’s extensive ministerial experience and ability to unify the party.
“John is very difficult to beat,” said one senior SNP figure. “Kate stood and didn’t win already — it wouldn’t be a bad idea for a younger figure to test their standing in the party by running against John — but to stand twice and not win wouldn’t be a good look.”
The SNP, seeking to pivot away from the progressive policies associated with its partnership with the Greens, will hope for a swift process to rebuild stability in the face of a resurgent Labour party targeting multiple Scottish seats held by nationalists at the general election expected this year.
Party figures say Forbes is considering putting her name forward before the deadline for nominations closes on Monday.
Providing a fresh face to any potential contest, the 34-year old is feared by opponents for her intellect and political nous. But her conservative social and economic views alienate progressives. She has received public backing from one of her allies, Fergus Ewing MSP.
Joanna Cherry, an SNP MP known for her gender-critical feminist views, said Swinney was hugely respected but that the party needed a “complete reset”.
“We must go forward not backwards,” she said in a post on X. “Kate was right when she said that continuity would not cut it. The next leader must deliver change.”
The Greens, which have indicated their willingness to support a minority SNP government led by an appropriate candidate, have already indicated their opposition to her candidacy.
The SNP, which has 63 Holyrood seats, faces a combined opposition of 65 MSPs. The new SNP leader would need to command a majority in parliament to be elected first minister.
The SNP national executive committee is expected to publish a timetable for the election soon.
Several other potential candidates, such as Jenny Gilruth and Neil Gray, have backed Swinney, who is now regarded as the continuity candidate.
The party is likely to push for a truncated contest to avoid the internal damage that resulted from last year’s brutal leadership race that pitted Yousaf and Forbes against Ash Regan, who has since defected to rival nationalist party, Alba.
If only one candidate emerges, a ballot of party members would be avoided.
The strategy to move the policy agenda away from the more radical elements promoted by the Greens remains intact, the SNP figure said.
“Whoever takes over now won’t change the nature of our approach,” he said. “Whether it’s jobs or the economy, that has to be the focus of our government.”
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