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Indebta > News > At the Milei show, pressure is building backstage
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At the Milei show, pressure is building backstage

News Room
Last updated: 2024/05/29 at 10:32 AM
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The president of Argentina fought his way through the mosh pit and on to the stage. Dressed in a leather trenchcoat, Javier Milei hushed the chanting crowd: “Friends, I wanted to do this because I want to sing!” 

Milei and a six-piece band then launched into the heavy metal song that became his anthem ahead of last year’s election. It features a lyric that stands out in Argentina, where years of economic mismanagement have pushed inflation to 289 per cent: “I am the king of a lost world.”

The show at a Buenos Aires arena last week — nominally to launch Milei’s new book — felt exactly like his bizarre campaign rallies. After the rousing opening, fans packed like sardines dutifully listened to a 50-minute lecture by the libertarian economist. They yawned only a little, and intermittently cheered such stirring lines as: “ . . . allowing the integration of money, capital markets and the real economy.”

Milei has barely shifted out of campaign mode since taking office in December. At home, he has clashed with the opposition politicians his minority government needs to pass legislation. Abroad, he has been busy building a profile as a leader of the global alt-right, delivering fiery speeches at conferences, insulting leftwing prime ministers and making friends with Elon Musk. Milei is spending this week meeting other tech bosses in Silicon Valley.

His base loves it. “He is the new leader of the west,” said Rubén Fernández, 55, as he left the event. “He is showing the world that Argentina is back.”

On Saturday, however, there was a reminder that Milei has a way to go to make the hype last.

The president had announced back in March that he would invite the country’s 23 provincial governors to sign a grand “pact” on 25 May, a national holiday, committing to long-term economic reform.

Instead, Milei held a solo event. Negotiations on his first legislative bills — which aim to trim the deficit and incentivise investment, and which he wants approved before the pact — have dragged on in the senate, where he controls just 10 per cent of seats.

The bills may soon pass. After the abrupt collapse of his first attempt to legislate in February, Milei has given his delegates in congress more licence to make concessions.

It is essential for Milei that they succeed, says Martín Rapetti, head of consultancy Equilibra. For one thing, Argentina must convince global capital markets to lend to it again soon, or risk defaulting on about $9.3bn of payments on its foreign currency debt next year.

“The most important factor in achieving that isn’t whether this year’s fiscal result is 0.5 per cent [of GDP] higher or lower,” Rapetti says, referring to Milei’s strategy of slashing Argentina’s chronic fiscal deficit using executive power.

“It’s that Argentina’s political system shows an appetite for permanently lowering the deficit.”

Having spent months claiming he could take or leave congressional support and calling opposition lawmakers “enemies of change,” Milei’s speech on Saturday was more conciliatory than usual. On Monday, he installed interior minister Guillermo Francos, the government’s most experienced political negotiator, as cabinet chief.

Even if Milei’s pragmatic side prevails, his control of politics will remain fragile. Last week, leftist and centrist lawmakers managed to call a lower house vote on protecting university funding, against the libertarian’s wishes.

Retaining popular support — currently about 50 per cent, per polls — is fundamental for the government. That means fixing the economy fast, and huge risks remain.

While the monthly inflation rate has fallen from a peak of 25.5 per cent in December to 8.8 per cent last month, planned cuts to energy subsidies and exchange rate pressures will continue to inflame prices in the coming months. Meanwhile, consumer spending and real wages have cratered.

When I got in a taxi after Milei’s arena performance, its elderly driver, José, asked if I had been inside.

“Is now really the right time for a show?” he grumbled. “He wants to be famous around the world, but his feet aren’t touching the ground.”

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News Room May 29, 2024 May 29, 2024
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