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The Conservatives have begun warning voters online that Labour could win with a landslide in the July 4 UK general election, sparking accusations that the ruling party is in effect conceding defeat.
Tory social media advertisements published since Friday have been urging people against voting for the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, warning that backing those smaller parties could give Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer a “massive majority”.
Another Tory ad said voting Lib Dem or Reform would “hand Keir Starmer a blank cheque” and leave “nobody holding [sic] to account on your behalf”.
The recent shift in Tory messaging online, as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s re-election bid has faltered, has also been reflected in the party’s on-the-ground campaigning, according to Conservative figures.
“There has definitely been a pivot on the doorstep, so our candidates are telling people that we can’t give Starmer a blank cheque. That we need to have a strong opposition,” said one former Tory cabinet minister.
Another Tory candidate added: “My point has been that we are fighting to win, but even if we don’t, we need an effective opposition so we need to hold seats like mine. When people realise that Starmer may have an unassailable majority, they get quite nervous.”
The Conservatives have launched about 40 new Facebook and Instagram ads focusing on a Labour landslide since last Friday, when Sunak issued an apology for leaving D-Day commemorations in France, a move that sparked a furious backlash from Tory candidates.
These contrast with previous Tory ads that issued warnings such as “vote Reform, get Keir Starmer” but did not imply that a vote for Nigel Farage’s party would boost an assumed Labour majority.
Labour leads the Tories by about 20 points in opinion polls, a gap that has shown little sign of narrowing ahead of the election.
The Tories have spent over £12,000 on the new ads since last Friday, according to a Financial Times analysis of Meta ad library data. They had collectively received more than 2.2mn impressions by 6pm on Monday.
One series of ads warned voters that if they backed Labour, the Lib Dems or Reform, they would “hand Keir Starmer a massive majority and pay the price”.
The images in the ads claim Starmer “needs your pensions” or reference “£2,094”, a contentious Tory accusation about average household tax rises under a Labour government that the opposition party rejects.
Another ad, which the party has spent only a small sum promoting, said: “With the Liberal Democrats on board with everything Keir Starmer wants to do, a vote for Reform or the Liberal Democrats means you’ll have nobody holding [sic] to account on your behalf.”
A Conservative official said: “You’re reading too much into it. That’s what we’ve always been saying about a vote for Reform.”
But Helen Morgan, Lib Dem local government spokesperson, heaped scorn on the “weak-looking adverts”. She said: “This is desperate stuff from the Conservative party who look like they’ve totally given up and admitted defeat.”
Ben Habib, co-deputy leader of Reform, also attacked the ads, saying they showed “the Conservatives recognise they’ve lost the election and for them it is now about damage limitation”.
Another former Conservative minister who is standing for re-election also expressed dismay. “You can’t fight an election to come a good second, you’ve got to fight an election to come a good first. It’s annoying. It feels like the party is prepared to throw seats away,” they said.
A Conservative party representative said: “The only thing we’ll concede is that a vote for any other party is a vote for Keir Starmer.”
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