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Ukraine is set to hold a first global summit aimed at broadening support for Kyiv’s peace plan and dialling up pressure on Moscow to end the war.
Some 80 world leaders are expected at the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock on Saturday and Sunday, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to appeal to nations that have been indifferent to his nation’s plight, more than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion. He will home in on three of the 10 points in his peace plan: nuclear safety, food security and return of Ukrainians, including children, being held by Russia.
The remaining points, which include the full retreat of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory, would be tackled at a later stage, officials said.
Vladimir Putin is not invited to the summit and the Kremlin has said it would not have accepted the invitation anyway. China, Saudi Arabia and Brazil have declined to participate because of the Russian president’s absence.
Throughout the war, Zelenskyy, who has spearheaded the peace summit initiative, said there was no point negotiating with Russia, which has already broken previous agreements. In addition, both Kyiv and Moscow have been reluctant to hold direct talks during an active conflict.
But over the past month, Ukrainian officials have started entertaining the prospect of negotiations, at some point in the future.
Ukraine’s intelligence general Vadym Skibitsky told the Economist last month that the war would end in negotiations and floated mid-2025 as the point when they estimate Russia will be at its weakest.
Expanding on Skibitsky’s comments, a senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that the 2025 date depends on the west outspending Russia to create the best possible negotiating position for Ukraine.
“We hope that the war has an economic effect, which will lead to political collapse in Russia. We will not be able to beat [Russia],” said a Ukrainian defence official.
Earlier this month, Zelenskyy said the Swiss summit was a first step in a process modelled on the successful Black Sea grain corridor initiative where Ukraine negotiated with the UN and Turkey and they in turn talked to Russia. In the end, two separate documents were signed.
Ukrainians believe they will able to retake the initiative on the battlefield by 2025 as more western weapons arrive over the next few months. “With new war dynamic [there will be] a possibility to conduct real negotiations,” said Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the New Europe Center, a Kyiv-based think-tank.
The Pentagon said earlier this week that the first new round of western weaponry had already enabled Ukraine to hold back the new Russian offensive in north-east Kharkiv region.
Elina Ribakova, a Russian economy expert, said that Moscow stopping its recent offensive was “dependent on how much it sees Ukraine getting support”.
Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee did not rule out peace talks or the more likely prospect of a negotiated ceasefire, using the example of North and South Korea, who never formally declared peace.
But even ceasefire talks would be “hopeless” without serious security guarantees from the west, said Merezhko. A formal peace agreement would only be possible if China and the US, “the two countries Russia respects”, teamed up to pressure Moscow.
The lawmaker admitted that his country’s battered economy was unable to rival Russia or China’s offerings to developing nations.
“We cannot offer anything, except for our problems. We can only say it’s in your interest to support us because today international law is violated against us, and tomorrow it might be violated against you.”
Additional reporting from Christopher Miller in Kyiv
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