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Tory leadership hopefuls are courting MPs while building grassroots support as they jostle to replace Rishi Sunak after the election, party officials and members say.
Several senior Tories have stepped up manoeuvres, as Sunak’s party barrels towards what polls predict will be an electoral hammering on July 4.
Potential contenders touted by MPs include former home secretary Suella Braverman, business secretary Kemi Badenoch and home secretary James Cleverly.
“The shadow boxing has begun,” declared one party insider. The person added that would-be leaders were already “doing visits to other seats, helping MPs where possible, making sure they’re visible and prominent with the grassroots”, and stepping up their social media output.
Party figures expect Sunak to give up the leadership if the predicted Labour landslide occurs, and that the battle to succeed him will help shape British politics for years to come as the Conservative party decides whether to shift to the right.
Potential Tory leadership contenders
Some leadership hopefuls have already installed key aides and have begun approaching fellow MPs in safe seats — who are more likely to remain in parliament — to test support.
“I’ve had a few approaches directly,” said one minister, adding: “There are various degrees of explicitness, but it’s all couched in the prism of ‘we’re going to lose, let’s discuss what we should do after polling day’.”
The Tory leadership is usually decided by MPs, who select the final two candidates, and party members, who incline more to the right and determine the final winner.
People within the party said potential candidates had been intensifying contacts with both groups as the Tories’ public messaging has grown increasingly pessimistic over the past 10 days.
Conservative spokespeople are now focusing their efforts on calls not to give Labour a “blank cheque” with a so-called supermajority.
Manoeuvring had not moved into “mad” overdrive yet, with fully-staffed campaign teams and donors funding individual candidates, Tory officials cautioned.
The rules and timeline for the next leadership contest are also yet to be determined.
“It’s all very hard to call — you don’t know how big the parliament party will be or who will be in it,” said a former minister. “But the race to shape the Conservative party at every level has already begun.”
Those expected to throw their hat into the ring also include former home secretary Priti Patel on the right of the party and more centrist figures such as Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, defence secretary Grant Shapps, and security minister Tom Tugendhat.
But some potential aspirants would no longer be able to stand if they lose their seats in the general election.
Mordant’s and Shapps’s constituencies have shifted from safe seats to knife-edge battlegrounds. Their potential elimination may pave the way for lesser-known moderates such as health secretary Victoria Atkins, who colleagues expect to stand.
With the Tories’ presence in parliament widely predicted to be greatly reduced at the July poll, party officials admit they are unsure whether One Nation moderates or rightwingers will be the dominant force.
Polling group Survation at the weekend predicted as few as 72 Tory MPs could be left after the election, down from 317 in 2019.
Some believe it is even possible that someone not standing as a Tory candidate in the election may become the next party leader.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has suggested he could mount a “reverse takeover” bid of the Conservatives.
A modest grouping of right-wing incumbent Tory MPs privately say they would welcome such a move if Farage’s bid to win the Clacton constituency succeeds.
But few think he could seek the leadership immediately upon entering parliament. Farage said this week that joining the Conservatives was “not on my agenda”.
A further possibility suggested by Tory party officials is that former prime minister Boris Johnson — the architect of the Conservatives’ 2019 victory — could return through a by-election.
It is not yet clear how long a leadership contest would take and whether Sunak would agree to remain at the helm of the party while it was under way.
Several Tory candidates said Oliver Dowden, currently deputy prime minister, would be a good option as an interim leader.
Sunak said last week he would remain as an MP for the next five-year parliamentary term regardless of the election result. But some of his fellow Conservatives are doubtful.
“Rishi will cut and run. I’d be shocked if he’s an MP by Christmas,” predicted one Tory insider.
Conservatives close to Sunak insist he is “pumped up”, but the Tory campaign acknowledges there is little time left.
Postal votes are already being submitted, while only a couple of major scheduled campaign moments remain, notably a Question Time special with four party leaders on Thursday and a second debate between Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer next Wednesday.
“There’s a sense of depression and defeat,” said a Tory candidate. “We should be fighting that. Two-and-a-half weeks is a long time in politics.”
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