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French voters head to the ballot box on Sunday in the first round of a high-stakes parliamentary election.
The latest polls show Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National on course to win the most seats in the 577-member National Assembly, followed by the leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire bloc.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance is forecast to come in third place.
Pollsters say forecasting the election outcome is difficult at this stage because of the two-round format and local dynamics in each district.
The top two candidates progress to a run-off on July 7. But they can be joined by another candidate who gains the support of at least 12.5 per cent of registered voters in their constituency, meaning turnout will be key in this election. There are expected to be more three-way run-offs than usual.
Given the dramatic stakes of the RN being able to claim the prime minister’s office if they win a majority of 289 seats, there will be pressure in the second round on centrist and leftwing parties to strategically drop out in certain districts so as not to divide the vote.
Key election issues
Voters told Ipsos that social issues — defined as purchasing power, social security and inequality — were their priorities, followed by economic issues such as growth, debt, inflation and tackling the deficit.
To address concerns about the cost of living, the RN has promised to lower value-added tax on energy and fuel, while the leftwing bloc has said it will raise the minimum wage by 14 per cent.
Gabriel Attal, France’s prime minister who is leading Ensemble’s campaign, has argued that large public spending plans are unrealistic and could backfire, in a country where the deficit is at 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product. But he has laid out some spending plans, such as abolishing notary fees for some first-time buyers.
The outgoing assembly
Despite beating Marine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential election, Macron’s party failed to win an outright majority in that year’s parliamentary vote, forcing his government to strike deals with other parties to pass laws. The government has at times overridden lawmakers to pass budgets and reforms using a constitutional clause, known as the 49.3, which then exposes it to a no-confidence vote.
The first round of the 2022 legislative elections was predominantly a battle between the centre and the left, with Ensemble in run-offs against the Nupes.
What the new assembly might look like
Even with regular polling, it is very difficult to predict the final composition of the new parliament before the first round of voting.
It is uncertain how many candidates will reach the second round and there is the prospect of alliances forming between rounds, leading pollsters to provide wide ranges in their seat projections for each party. But early forecasts suggest it could be a very different legislative body and the likelihood of a hung parliament is high.
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