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Indonesia is trying to reduce Chinese investment in new nickel mining and processing projects to help its industry qualify for tax breaks in the US, as the Biden administration seeks to curb Beijing’s influence in the electric vehicle supply chain.
Generous tax breaks are available from 2025 under President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, but they will not apply to EVs containing batteries and critical minerals such as nickel sourced from “foreign entities of concern”, including some companies with more than 25 per cent Chinese ownership.
That would hurt Indonesia’s industry, which has become the world’s biggest supplier of nickel on the back of a huge influx of Chinese capital over the past four years into mining and smelting projects.
Indonesia’s government and industry are now working to structure new nickel investment deals with Chinese companies as minority shareholders, according to three people familiar with the matter.
Such deals could allow the output from those projects to attract IRA tax credits, although Indonesia would also need to negotiate a trade agreement with the US for its nickel industry to qualify. Jakarta has proposed a limited agreement covering only critical minerals.
Indonesia is in discussions with several potential investors to build smelters in which Chinese companies would have less than a 25 per cent stake, according to one person aware of the government’s position.
Its efforts come as the industry faces increasing pressure from potential customers in South Korea and Japan to comply with the IRA, with those companies in the supply chain also wanting to qualify under the new law, the people said.
Septian Hario Seto, deputy co-ordinating minister for investment and mining, confirmed the industry and government efforts. “It’s not just about IRA, but also diversification,” he told the Financial Times. “This is a very important policy because we do not want to get trapped in geopolitical tensions. We have to look out for national interests.”
One new smelter investment — valued at about $700mn — is in the works with a Chinese company holding a minority stake, while Indonesian and South Korean partners hold a majority, he said. He declined to name the companies.
However, Jakarta is not imposing any mandatory limit on ownership by Chinese companies.
Last year, Indonesian government officials asked some Chinese companies if they would be open to taking a minority stake of about 15 per cent in nickel projects, according to an executive at a nickel producer.
At least one Chinese company is resisting any attempt to restrict new investments. “We have the technology, we have the market and we only get a small percentage of the profit? It does not make sense for us,” said the executive.
Reducing China’s influence will be a challenge for Indonesia. About 80 to 82 per cent of its battery-grade nickel output is expected to come from majority Chinese-owned producers this year, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
This stems from Jakarta banning nickel ore exports in 2020 to force processors and battery makers to invest in the country. Chinese companies came forward quickly with billions of dollars.
The investments have transformed the economy and made the nation a critical player in the global EV transition. Indonesia accounts for 57 per cent of global refined nickel production, and its share is forecast to rise to 69 per cent by the end of the decade, according to BMI.
Only a handful of foreign companies that are not Chinese operate in the Indonesian nickel industry. Vale Indonesia has partnered with carmaker Ford on equity investments in a nickel smelter and is in talks with Stellantis about another smelter. China’s Huayou Cobalt is a partner in both projects.
When they met last year in Washington, Biden and Indonesian leader Joko Widodo agreed to work on an “action plan” on critical minerals as a precursor to any free trade agreement.
However, there has been little apparent progress in talks, and US lawmakers have raised concerns over the presence of Chinese companies in Indonesia and the environmental harm from nickel mining and processing.
“These are positive discussions and we would like to work towards a critical minerals agreement that will enable more companies from the US and elsewhere to invest in the critical minerals industry in Indonesia,” said Jose Fernández, US under-secretary of state for economic growth, energy and the environment, during a visit to Jakarta this month.
Bryan Bille, principal policy and geopolitical analyst at BMI, said it would be a challenge for Indonesia to qualify for the IRA due to the dominant presence of Chinese companies, and “amid an election year and given the previous domestic pushback, a US-Indonesia [trade agreement] is not likely in the near term”.
Additional reporting by Diana Mariska in Jakarta
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