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Following the back-to-back Israeli assassinations of senior leaders of Iranian-backed militant groups Hizbollah and Hamas last week, there was a burst of triumphalism in Israel. But in the days since, Israelis — and the wider region — have been gripped by apprehension, waiting in trepidation for what may come next as their country is locked in a dangerous, escalatory spiral of violence with its foes.
Both Iran and the Lebanese militant movement have vowed to retaliate against Israel after Fuad Shukr, a senior Hizbollah commander, was killed by an air strike in Beirut, and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.
The US and its western and Arab allies are once more desperately working to de-escalate the situation, fearing that the Middle East is in danger of sliding towards all-out war. It is the scenario they have been dreading since Hamas’s horrendous October 7 attack triggered the war in Gaza. Yet for all their diplomatic efforts over the past 10 months, and the presumed political heft of Washington, they have struggled to restrain the protagonists. Yet a ceasefire in Gaza and a return of Israeli hostages is the only way to prevent escalation. The time for it is now.
The fate of the region is the hands of the hardliners: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right government; Hizbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah; Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; and Yahya Sinwar, the brutal Hamas leader who began it all by masterminding the October 7 attack. It is what makes the situation so combustible and unpredictable.
The latest surge in tensions began after a suspected Hizbollah rocket attack killed 12 youngsters on a football pitch in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights last Saturday. Hizbollah denied it was responsible, but acknowledged it had been firing at military installations in the vicinity that day. Such a tragedy was inevitable as the militants and Israel have been trading intensifying fire since Hizbollah launched rockets across the border on October 8.
Israeli politicians described it as the deadliest hostile incident in Israeli-controlled territory since Hamas’s attack. Washington recognised the threat and pressured Netanyahu to show restraint. But he seemingly ignored the advice as he gambled on a high-stakes retaliation — striking Shukr in southern Beirut, Hizbollah’s heartland. Israel followed up with an equally escalatory act hours later — killing Haniyeh in Tehran. (It neither confirms or denies responsibility).
Both attacks dealt humiliating blows to Israel’s foes. It has left them in a bind: respond and risk all out war with Israel, or show restraint and appear impotent. Their own rhetoric suggests they will act, perhaps in concert. The scale of the retaliation will matter and determine Israel’s next act, which in turn will shape counter-responses from Hizbollah and Iran.
There is, however, a way out: US-led efforts to broker a multiphase deal to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza and end the Israel-Hamas war. That is key to unlocking a separate US-mediated agreement to end the clashes between Hizbollah and Israel. If a ceasefire is announced, it may allow Iran to save face and reconsider its response.
The hostage talks have been deadlocked for months, with Hamas insisting any deal guarantee a permanent end to the Gaza war, which Netanyahu vehemently rejects. But in recent weeks, Hamas has softened its position, conceding that the details of how the conflict ends be discussed at the close of the deal’s first phase, not before it begins. Mediators thought this removed the last hurdle to an agreement. But Netanyahu hardened Israel’s position, even as his security chiefs back a deal. The assassination of Haniyeh — Hamas’s main negotiator — was a further setback for the talks.
Hamas’s decision to appoint Sinwar, who is responsible for so much death and destruction, as the group’s political leader, was an affront to Israel. It could also complicate the negotiations. But since he still controls what is left of Hamas in Gaza, he was always key to getting a deal over the line.
Israel has severely depleted Hamas’s military capabilities. The group will never again be able to control Gaza or repeat October 7. Israel has dealt severe blows to Hizbollah, and shown Iran that it can strike at the heart of the Islamic republic. History proves that when one militant leader is killed, another fills the void. Netanyahu needs to listen to Joe Biden as well as his own his security officials and grasp the opportunity to secure the freedom of the remaining hostages. That has to be the US president’s firm message.
The irony is that Israel, Iran and Hizbollah would all like to avoid a full-blown regional conflict. As the last months have shown, however, they are slowly and dangerously sliding into war.
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