Hello and welcome to the working week.
There is a surprising/shocking amount of news around for August, a month when traditionally diarised events are thin on the ground with parliaments in recess, schools on holiday and company bosses heading off for a break. The problem for this newsletter writer is that the depressingly unending wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are not diarised — though it is worth noting that Monday is the 75th anniversary of the signing of the fourth Geneva Convention, relating to the protection of civilians in time of war.
So I will begin by thanking the bean counters. The next five days will provide a splurge of economic data from China, Japan and the US plus a clean sweep of stats from the UK Office for National Statistics: monthly unemployment and inflation figures, second-quarter GDP and retail sales. After unnerving the markets with its labour market figures, the US publishes what will be a closely watched inflation data report, China will post retail sales and industrial production figures while Japan provides a first stab at its second-quarter GDP number.
What the reaction will be to all of these statistics is unknown. The same could be said of the announcement that Donald Trump will be interviewed by social media platform X owner Elon Musk on Monday. More important, perhaps, the former US president has also agreed with his Democratic party rival Kamala Harris to a debate on September 10 on the US television channel ABC, with other debates being discussed.
The debate about UK university funding — and indeed whether it is the best route for young people — will also come to the fore on Thursday with A-level results in England, Wales and Northern Ireland deciding the fate of thousands of teenagers seeking places on degree courses. Full disclosure: I will be experiencing this for the first time as a parent with an 18-year-old hoping to get his first choice of university. My colleagues in the public policy team have more analysis of the looming insolvencies crisis facing some institutions.
Apprenticeships will also be in the spotlight in the UK, not least because many parents see degree apprenticeships as a way to get their kids through college debt free, with the employer funding the tuition fees. By coincidence, the latest data on the number of people opting for these programmes in England and Wales will be out on the same day as the school exam results.
As we approach next weekend, the anniversaries of V-J Day and independence for Indonesia and Singapore will provide some set-piece speeches by new political leaders in these countries.
Finally, on the theme of heading for a break, we have a winding down of the furious activity in the latest earnings season. This week’s ones to watch are tech companies (Alibaba, Tencent and Foxconn), big retailers (notably Walmart) plus financial services companies (Aviva and UBS). More details below.
What are your priorities for the next seven days? Are you taking a break or working through? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.
One more thing . . .
A service that is beyond this newsletter’s remit is forecasting how stock markets will react to key economic reports, as readers will have discovered last week.
However, I can point you to excellent FT analysis on market turbulence. So let me encourage you to join Robert Armstrong, chief US financial commentator, and colleagues from Tokyo to London this Wednesday at 12pm BST for an FT subscriber webinar discussing the recent turmoil and where markets will go next. Register for your subscriber pass at ft.com/marketswebinar and submit your questions for the panel.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
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Opec August oil market report
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India: July consumer price index inflation rate data
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UK: Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development labour market outlook
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UK: High Pay Centre publishes its annual survey of FTSE 100 chief executive pay levels
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Results: Marshalls HY
Tuesday
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Made by Google event, launching Google’s latest devices, including the Pixel smartphone. A teaser video released in June said “AI . . . meet IX”
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IEA August oil market report
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Germany: August ZEW survey
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UK: monthly labour market figures
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US: July producer price index inflation rate data
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Results: CSL FY, HelloFresh HY, Henkel HY, Home Depot Q2, Just Group HY, Porsche HY, Sun Life Financial Q2
Wednesday
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EU: Q2 GDP, Q2 employment and June industrial production figures
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France: July CPI and harmonised index consumer prices inflation rate data
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Norway: Government Pension Fund Global half-year report
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Pakistan: Independence Day. Financial markets closed
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UK: July CPI and PPI inflation rate data
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US: July CPI inflation rate data
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Results: Aviva HY, Balfour Beatty HY, Cisco Systems Q4, Commonwealth Bank of Australia FY, DFDS Q2, Eon HY, Foxconn Q2, Hapag-Lloyd HY, RWE HY, Tencent Holdings Q2, Thyssenkrupp Q3, Tui Q3, UBS Q2, Vestas Q2
Thursday
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China: July retail sales and industrial production figures
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India: Independence Day. Financial markets closed
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Japan: Q2 GDP figures
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South Korea: Independence Day. Financial markets closed
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UK: preliminary Q2 GDP figures
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Results: Admiral HY, Alibaba Q1, Applied Materials Q3, Deere & Co Q3, Geberit HY, OSB HY, Rank FY, Walmart Q2
Friday
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Germany: Q2 labour market figures
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UK: July Great Britain retail sales figures
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US: University of Michigan August consumer sentiment index
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Results: National Australia Bank Q3 trading update, Kingspan HY
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
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Russia: Russian Air Force Day
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UK: The Glorious Twelfth, opening day of the British grouse shooting season.
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US: former president Donald Trump expected to be interviewed by Elon Musk
Tuesday
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UN Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee (1373 Committee) formal meeting in New York
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US: pretrial conference for former Republican congressman George Santos on wire fraud and money laundering charges
Wednesday
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Switzerland: US-mediated ceasefire talks due to begin between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the UN are involved as observers
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Turkey: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas begins a two-day visit, meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and addressing the parliament in Ankara
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UK: Edinburgh’s waste and recycling workers expected to begin an eight-day strike, affecting the city’s world-famous arts festival, in a dispute over pay
Thursday
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Belgium: a huge flower carpet in the central square of Brussels, created by Belgian flower growers, is unveiled. The display, on view until Sunday, has been a biennial tradition since 1986, and this year is a tribute to art nouveau
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India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers a speech to mark the anniversary of his country’s independence from British rule in 1947
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Japan: Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are due to speak at a ceremony to mark the 79th anniversary of Japan’s second world war surrender at Nippon Budokan
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UK: A-level results day for schools in England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Friday
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Fifa/Coca-Cola Women’s World Football Rankings released
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UK: English Premier League football season opens with Manchester United vs Fulham
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US: 70th anniversary of Sports Illustrated, first published by Time Inc
Saturday
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Indonesia: outgoing president Joko Widodo and ex-defence minister and incoming president Prabowo Subianto expected to attend celebrations of 79 years of independence in the new capital Nusantara
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Zimbabwe: Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government, meeting to discuss economic growth and development
Sunday
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Singapore: Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15 as Singapore’s fourth prime minister, the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years
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