Good morning and welcome to the working week.
The US presidential election campaign is set to heat up when Democrat nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump finally go head to head in a televised debate on Tuesday.
Harris, the vice-president, and former president Trump last week drew the battle lines on the issue US voters say matters most: the economy. While Trump has promised to cut taxes and government spending, Harris has said she will increase taxes for the wealthy alongside help for smaller businesses.
She will enter the debate with a slight lead in the polls, according to an analysis by the FT, but given that President Joe Biden’s performance in the last debate played a key part in his withdrawal from the running, a good performance will be seen as vital for both candidates.
Markets will all have plenty of data to scrutinise, chief among them the US consumer price index data for August scheduled to be released on Wednesday. After less than amazing jobs data last Friday Federal Reserve officials warned that the tightening economic backdrop “requires action” and that the Fed would be open to larger cuts if warranted. Wednesday’s data will give investors the clearest sign yet as to whether a much-awaited rate cut by the Fed will be on the cards at the meeting the following week.
Across the pond, the European Central Bank is set to make its own decision on interest rates. The bank’s governing council convenes in Frankfurt on Thursday. Minutes from July’s session said officials would approach the meeting “with an open mind”. A sharp fall in Eurozone inflation in August to a three-year low of 2.2 per cent has made many watchers hopeful that a another cut could be likely from the current rate of 3.75 per cent.
One more thing . . .
To mark my first week covering the Week Ahead for Jonathan Moules, I am pleased to announce that the Fifa Futsal World Cup will commence on Saturday. For anyone unfamiliar with the glorious affair that is Futsal, it is a football-esque game typically played on an indoor hard court that is smaller than a full-sized pitch. Made much more difficult than football by the smaller, harder ball and more limited playing space, the sport is extremely popular in South America, and often provides a stable footing for young players before transitioning into football. The tenth edition of the World Cup will be held in Uzbekistan, and will see reigning champions Portugal defend their title.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
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UK: Office for National Statistics releases monthly GDP estimates, including a three-month rolling prediction and an estimate for the latest month
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Kazakhstan: Roscosmos rocket launch, carrying cosmonauts to ISS
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UK: NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
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US: Bureau of Labor Statistics releases consumer price index (CPI) data for August
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Results: Manchester United FY
Thursday
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EU: ECB interest rate announcement
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UK: Office for Budget Responsibility fiscal risks and sustainability report
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France: IEA Oil Market Report
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UK: Business Finance Review
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UK: National Tax Equality Day
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Results: John Lewis HY, Adobe Q3
Friday
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UK: Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey including the public’s expectations of interest rates and inflation
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Cyprus: Bank of Cyprus shareholders vote on London Stock Exchange delisting
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EU: Eurogroup meeting of Eurozone finance ministers
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
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China: Norway’s prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre commences official visit to China
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US: SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launch, carrying EU navigation satellites
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US: Apple holds its annual media event to launch new products.
Tuesday
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US: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump take part in a presidential debate
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UK: Early prisoner release scheme begins
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UK: MPs debate winter fuel payments
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Jordan: parliamentary elections
Wednesday
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US: Anniversary of 9/11 terrorist attacks
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UK: National Television Awards
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Spain: National Day of Catalonia, commemorating the defence against the siege of Barcelona
Thursday
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UK: London Fashion Week begins
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UK: ParalympicsGB homecoming event in Birmingham
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Belgium: AI Regulation Forum
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China: China International Fair for Trade in Services opens
Friday
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UK: 50th anniversary of the birth of Stephen Lawrence
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Sweden: Funeral service for former England men’s football manager Sven-Göran Eriksson
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UK: British Street Food Awards final
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Czech Republic: Nato Military Committee Conference opens
Saturday
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UK: First day of the Liberal Democrats autumn conference
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US: Donald Trump to attend campaign fundraiser in Utah
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Uzbekistan: Fifa Futsal World Cup begins
Sunday
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US: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards
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World Lymphoma Awareness Day
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Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua: Independence Day
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