Overseas voters could swing US election result in battleground states

A new battleground is emerging in the contest to elect America’s next president as the Democratic party seeks an advantage in the razor-close race for the White House: the world outside the US.

High-profile Democrats such as former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke and former attorney-general Eric Holder are being deployed to target millions of Americans living overseas who are seen as potential voters for Kamala Harris.

“This election is too important to sit on the sidelines,” Pelosi said in a video message aimed at overseas voters that was posted on social media.

“Americans abroad were instrumental in winning key races in 2016 for [senator] Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, [governor] Roy Cooper in North Carolina, and in 2020 and 2022 for President [Joe] Biden, Senator [Jon] Ossoff and Senator [Raphael] Warnock,” she added.

The US state department estimates there are approximately 9mn Americans living abroad. A report on the 2020 presidential vote by the US Election Assistance Commission showed that roughly 1.2mn ballots were sent to eligible overseas voters, and more than 900,000 were returned and submitted for counting.

These votes could make the difference in the swing states that will probably decide the election, with Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump running neck and neck.

Earlier this month Democrats Abroad, a network affiliated with the Democratic party, held a star-studded online event that aimed to raise $100,000.

Erin Kotecki Vest, chair of Democrats Abroad Canada, told the Financial Times the organisation’s main priority was to encourage as many Americans as possible to register to vote and return their ballot as soon as they could.  

“Our message is, no matter how many thousands of miles away, every US election impacts your loved ones, family and friends back home. It will impact the coming years, decades. This will impact you,” she said.

Kotecki Vest said in the 2020 election nearly 19,000 Georgians living abroad voted and that Biden won the state by just 11,779 votes. Similarly, in Arizona, 18,453 overseas voters returned ballots in Arizona, with Biden winning the state by 10,457 votes.

“We most certainly are a deciding factor in the election and many don’t realise just how crucial,” she added. 

Overseas members of the GOP are not represented by a party-affiliated group, but Anna Kelly, spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said her organisation was “working hand-in-glove with the Trump campaign to reach all eligible voters — including those abroad — to turn out the GOP electorate in an unprecedented and win on November 5”.

London-based Greg Swenson, chair of Republicans Overseas UK, said that while the group did not have an official affiliation to the party, it was nevertheless promoting former president Trump’s re-election via social media, press engagements and hosting events for its 1,500 members.

“In June, we raised $2.5mn at the Trump fundraiser at Nick and Holly Candy’s home in London, the largest ever fundraiser outside of the US,” said Swenson.  

He added that his group worked with US-based conservative grassroots organisation Turning Point Action and the Trump campaign.

“We’ve hired 20 paid employees in the UK, in addition to volunteers, just to chase ballots and help with voter registration,” he said.

While there is no reliable data on the party preferences of Americans living overseas, the Democrats are seen as the more internationally focused party, said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“There may be a kind of ‘worldliness’ with Americans living abroad that makes these kinds of people more amenable to voting Democratic,” he added. 

As an indication of the growing importance of the overseas to the party, this year for the first time the Democratic party gave $300,000 to Democrats Abroad to help it target expatriates from battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

Toronto-based Ariel Rubin, 39, who has lived overseas and in various US cities, said he would vote in Iowa even though it was no longer considered a swing state. “If you want to get a preview of where America is heading, go to Iowa,” he said. The state was “the testing ground for the most extreme and regressive of conservative politics”, he added.

Detroit-born, Montreal-based David Shelton, a Democratic party member, has voted in every election despite living in Canada for 30 years. The retired firefighter said he was in “a controlled panic, right now . . . considering what is at stake and how close the race appears”.

“I will travel to Michigan to see what I can do to help the candidates there,” he said.

A state department official said voting abroad was “now easier than ever before” with some states offering electronic voting and overseas citizens able to vote at US embassies or consulates.