Most European leaders are anxious about the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House. But in Rome that scenario is seen as a boon for one politician with long-standing ties to the Trump world: Giorgia Meloni.
Before becoming Italian prime minister, Meloni forged links with Maga ideologues at Republican gatherings. Now, her allies believe she will emerge as Trump’s go-to European partner if he is re-elected, boosting her relevance to EU peers with whom she has had fractious relations.
The ultraconservative Italian premier has so far refused to comment on the US vote, saying she will work with whomever occupies the White House. But her Brothers of Italy party apparatus is quietly working behind the scenes to reinvigorate ties with the Republicans.
Antonio Giordano, a Brothers of Italy MP who attended this summer’s Republican National Convention, said Meloni would be the “natural interlocutor” for Trump if he “wants to understand how to better deal with Europe”.
The Italian premier has developed a strong bond with tech mogul Elon Musk, tapped by Trump to spearhead “drastic reforms” of the federal government in case of victory. Their affinity will be on display on Monday night when Musk presents Meloni with the Atlantic Council’s Global Citizen award in New York City.
Stefano Stefanini, Italy’s former ambassador to Nato, said that Meloni is “well-positioned ideologically” to cope with a potential Trump White House. But he warned that Trump is likely to play European countries against each other, leaving Meloni with tough choices and potential difficulties in balancing relations with Washington and Brussels.
“Italy with a centre-right, Meloni government is certainly in a better position than other major European countries like Germany, France or even the UK,” Stefanini said. “The problem that might arise is: if Meloni gets too close to a second Trump administration how that will play in Europe? Her life in Europe — which is not the easiest — will get more complicated.”
Nathalie Tocci, director of Rome’s Institute of International Affairs, said Meloni could also fall out of favour over Italy’s failure to fulfil its Nato commitment to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence. “Trump has this obsession with defence spending,” Tocci said. “He may say to her, ‘how much are you spending again?’”
During her years as a fringe opposition figure, Meloni was a regular attendee at US political gatherings where Trump was speaking and praised him as an inspiration for Italian politics.
In early 2020, she was a guest at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington addressed by Trump. Afterwards, she hailed his “defence of identity, borders, enterprises, products, and American families,” saying she wanted to “bring the same recipe to Italy”.
Trump associates have also travelled to Italy. In 2018, his former strategic adviser, Steve Bannon, was the keynote speaker at Meloni’s Atreju political festival, lauding the Brothers of Italy party for its anti-elitism. “Italy now is the centre of the universe of politics,” he told festival attendees then. “If it works here, the revolution will spread.”
Musk was the star guest at the same festival last December, where he backed Meloni’s quest to curb illegal immigration and encourage Italian women to have more babies. “Please make more Italians,” he said. “We don’t want Italy as a culture to disappear.”
Italian-American businessman Andrea Di Giuseppe, who is an MP with Meloni’s party representing Italians living in North America, said Meloni is the “most credible” among conservative leaders in Europe and the obvious choice for Trump to talk to.
Di Giuseppe said that when he met Trump late last year, the Republican candidate described Meloni as “trustable”.
Since taking office in 2022, Meloni has forged warm relations with US President Joe Biden. She has not commented on either Trump’s or vice-president Kamala Harris’s bids for the presidency, reiterating her commitment to working with any White House occupant.
In that she contrasts sharply with Europe’s biggest Trump cheerleader, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who ended a flurry of controversial trips to Moscow and Beijing in July with a stop in Mar-a-Lago to meet Trump.
Meloni’s deputy prime minister and far-right League leader Matteo Salvini is also openly rooting for Trump’s re-election.
Brothers of Italy senator Lucio Malan said Rome’s ties with the US “will remain strong” irrespective of who is president, though he did acknowledge that Meloni’s party is “closer to the Republicans, and therefore President Trump” on many issues.
Meloni’s own straightforward, “authentic” style would play well with a Republican politician famous for blurting out whatever is on his mind, Malan said.
Malan and many others in Meloni’s party are sympathetic to Trump’s complaint that the US pays too much for European security, and say their government wants to step up military spending beyond its current 1.5 per cent of GDP. They blame Brussels and its budget deficit rules for not being able to spend more.
“Trump doesn’t want a dependent Europe — he wants an ally to talk with but not a dependent Europe,” said Giordano. “Meloni wants exactly the same: a strong Europe, concentrated on top issues, not immersed in bureaucratic processes, but focused on defence and immigration.”
During recent EU negotiations on the reform of budget rules, Rome pushed for the exclusion of defence spending from deficit calculations, but the idea was rejected by more fiscally conservative member states.
However, one western political analyst said that pressure from a Trump White House for higher European defence contributions could force Brussels to reconsider.
When it comes to the threat of a more protectionist US, Malan said he remains confident that Rome will be able to defend its interests. “Trump has been president once already for four years and the world didn’t fall apart.”
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