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The assassination in Mozambique this weekend of the legal adviser to the opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane has raised further questions about the inviolability of the electoral process ahead of the official announcement of results this week.
On Saturday morning, gunmen in two vehicles shot dead Mondlane’s legal adviser Elvino Dias, together with spokesperson for the opposition Podemos party Paulo Guambe on the streets of Maputo, the capital.
On Monday, demonstrators are expected to head for the part of Maputo where the assassination took place, raising the risk of further violence in what is turning out to be the most serious challenge to the power of liberation party Frelimo since it was first elected in 1975.
Mondlane, a 50-year-old engineer popular with young people in a country where the average age is 17, modified his earlier call for a general strike, instead calling for supporters to protest peacefully on the capital’s streets. He claimed his own parallel exit polls show he beat the Frelimo candidate in the October 9 election.
The Mozambique Electoral Commission is due to announce results by October 24, but preliminary results published by the state-owned press put Frelimo’s share of the vote at more than 60 per cent in nearly all the provinces, with Mondlane trailing by some distance in every case.
Mondlane, who ran as an independent but with Podemos’ support, has called for a nationwide protest at what he alleges is the theft of the election.
“These were strategic assassinations,” Adriano Nuvunga, director of the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights in the country, told the Financial Times, adding that the killings were intended to intimidate the opposition and complicate its legal challenge to the poll.
“Dias was Mondlane’s legal counsel at the exact time when his expertise is needed to challenge the election results,” he said. “And it is also a message to Mondlane’s supporters to say ‘If you go to the streets, we will target you’.”
Nuvunga, who spoke to Mondlane yesterday, told the FT that the opposition leader, whose support surged ahead of the poll, is “incredibly angry right now” but was determined to fight on in the belief the election was rigged.
The EU, which sent an observer mission to Mozambique, condemned what it said was an “outrageous crime” and called for an immediate investigation.
“These events take place after worrying reports about violent dispersion of supporters in the aftermath of last week’s election,” it said.
Last week, police in Nampula, in the north of the country, fired at Mondlane’s supporters at a rally and arrested musician David Calisto Bandeira, who was supporting him.
“Shooting live bullets at a peaceful political rally and arbitrarily detaining opposition supporters is a gross violation of both Mozambican and international human rights law,” said Khanyo Farisè, Amnesty International’s deputy director for the region.
If Mondlane’s appeal of the expected result is unsuccessful, Daniel Chapo is likely to be sworn in as president to replace the incumbent Filipe Nyusi, who is stepping down after two terms.
Chapo, who has presented himself as a new broom in the incumbent party, called the murders an “affront to democracy”, and said the police must conduct a “swift, impartial, independent and rigorous investigation”.
Luis Nhachote, a journalist and analyst for Mozambique Insights, said Maputo remained tense after the murders.
“This week, we’ve seen police on the streets and we expect there to be a heavy military presence during the protest on Monday,” he told the FT. “I hope it’s peaceful, but if they try stop Mondlane from carrying out his protest, anything could happen.”
Nuvunga said the disputed poll invoked memories of the 2019 general election, in which Frelimo was declared the winner with 73 per cent of the vote after EU observers reported “a significant number of data inconsistencies”.
Days before that election, poll observer Anastacio Matavel was shot 10 times with assault rifles. Four of the five men arrested for the murder turned out to be members of an elite police unit.
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