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Carlsberg, Estée Lauder and AB InBev have warned of a sales slump in China, underscoring the difficulty for Beijing of reviving the fortunes of the world’s second-largest economy.
Chinese political leaders and the central bank in September pledged widespread stimulus measures to boost flagging economic growth that included interest rates cuts and support for the stock market.
But Jacob Aarup-Andersen, chief executive of Danish brewer Carlsberg, told the Financial Times the Chinese government’s current stimulus did not “move the needle” as both it and Budweiser-owner AB InBev reported lower than expected volumes in the country.
The “jury is out” on whether China’s economy would recover next year, Aarup-Andersen said.
Estée Lauder cut its dividend and ditched its profit forecast as sales in China fell sharply and the New York-listed beauty group warned the recovery in the country was proving to be slower than expected. Its shares had lost more than 20 per cent by early afternoon in New York.
Western consumer groups including luxury, beauty, and beer companies as well as carmakers have been hard hit by the slowdown in Chinese consumer spending.
Their scepticism that the measures announced so far will be sufficient to substantially boost growth in the coming months comes ahead of an announcement by the Chinese government on a fresh fiscal stimulus that is expected next week.
Fernando Tennenbaum, chief financial officer of the world’s largest brewer AB InBev, said in an interview that the company believed “this softness will continue for a while”, although he added that the long-term opportunity was still “huge” in China.
He said Chinese consumers had become more cautious and were going out less, hitting AB InBev’s nightlife-focused beer portfolio heavily.
Aarup-Andersen said there had been a “significant deterioration” in Chinese consumer sentiment, leading to Carlsberg’s volumes dropping 6 per cent in its biggest market in the third quarter. AB InBev’s China sales fell 14.2 per cent.
Estée Lauder said the difficulty in forecasting when China would recover meant it was withdrawing its outlook for the rest of the year and cutting its dividend.
Rival beauty group L’Oréal last week warned of an “even more challenging” situation in China as sales were hurt by a government crackdown on daigou, shoppers who buy cosmetics in lower-tax areas in order to sell them for a profit in mainland China.
Luxury groups including LVMH have been hard hit by the Chinese slowdown, with revenues from Chinese customers at Kering, owner of Gucci, down roughly 35 per cent in the third quarter, according to its finance chief.
Western companies and investors are waiting anxiously to see details of a fiscal stimulus package expected to be confirmed by Chinese authorities during a session of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress next week.
Analysts said that while the monetary stimulus unveiled in September might have helped boost output, the fiscal phase of support would be more important. They estimate China needs to spend up to Rmb10tn ($1.4tn) over three years to restore confidence among domestic consumers, whose wealth has been hit by a deep property sector slowdown and by job and salary cuts.
Beijing has set a target of about 5 per cent for GDP growth this year, its joint-lowest target in decades. GDP expanded 4.6 per cent in the third quarter year on year, according to data released in October.
Additional reporting by Joe Leahy in Beijing
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