I’m a stock analyst with an MBA and a background in healthcare, bringing years of experience as a Registered Nurse dedicated to patient care. I’ve had the privilege of sharing my insights on Seeking Alpha since 2017. I am most interested in identifying underlying assumptions in stock valuations by emphasizing financial modeling techniques like DCF analysis. I then provide scenario-based forecasts to help readers gauge reasonable outcomes. I am influenced by books like Superforecasting and Antifragile. As such, I advocate for disciplined risk management through a barbell strategy—allocating 90% to safe assets and 10% to high-growth opportunities—to balance security with potential upside. Interested in connecting or collaborating? Feel free to drop me a message!————DCF model assumptions:My valuation model assumes that free cash flow will grow at a constant annual rate over the next eight years, with each year’s projected cash flow discounted back to present value using a fixed discount rate, derived via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), to reflect the time value of money and investment risk. After this period, I calculate a terminal value by projecting free cash flow into the ninth year—assuming it continues to grow at the same rate—and then apply a perpetual growth rate using the Gordon Growth Model. This terminal value is also discounted back to the present value. Key assumptions include constant growth and discount rates over time, the discount rate exceeding the perpetual growth rate to ensure a finite terminal value, and that free cash flow projections accurately reflect future performance without unexpected changes.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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