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Robert F Kennedy Jr’s allies fear that he has failed to convince enough senators to confirm him as Donald Trump’s top health official, according to people familiar with the matter.
Kennedy, known as RFK Jr, was holding last-minute meetings with Democrats and Republicans ahead of two days of questioning by the Senate’s finance and health committees later this week, three people said. He has met more than 60 senators since his nomination.
“There’s more anxiety now than ever,” said a person close to Kennedy. “This is a big week: if the vote were today it would be iffy. We really need to solidify momentum this week to overcome all the negativity there’s been.”
Opposition to Kennedy’s nomination has emerged from influential conservative voices, including The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board and Americans Advancing Freedom, a group co-founded by former vice-president Mike Pence that has expressed concern about the former Democrat’s support for abortion rights.
“What’s weird with RFK is the sheer volume of maybes that we need to watch and see where they come down — he is undoubtedly one of the two most endangered nominees,” said Chris Meekins, a Washington policy analyst for investment bank Raymond James.
Republican Senators Mitch McConnell, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are considered obvious candidates to oppose Kennedy’s nomination. All three voted against Trump’s defence secretary nominee Pete Hegseth last week when he secured senate confirmation with just a single tiebreaking vote cast by vice-president JD Vance.
But Kennedy’s support for abortion rights and his push to shake up the food industry and biomedical research funding were also potential sources of Republican opposition, people in his camp acknowledge.
Pro-life senators including James Lankford, Republican senators such as Todd Young and Thom Tillis who are historically close to the pharmaceutical industry, and those with a large agricultural industry in their states, such as John Hoeven, were risks for Kennedy, the people said.
A spokesperson for Young said the Indiana senator had a “very positive” meeting with Kennedy in December. Representatives for the others did not respond to requests for comment.
“These are the most consequential confirmation hearings for any [Health and Human Services] secretary we have probably seen in many decades,” said Meekins.
Kennedy, a vocal vaccine sceptic and critic of the pharmaceutical industry, would control a sprawling department with 13 divisions and agencies and a budget of $1.8tn if he is confirmed.
A representative for Kennedy said they had “full confidence” that he would win the Senate vote.
Prediction market Polymarket gives Kennedy an 80 per cent chance of being confirmed, compared with almost 100 per cent for nominees such as Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary. Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as intelligence director was on just 51 per cent.
Kennedy has stirred controversy for his previous opposition to some child vaccines, MMR shots and the Covid-19 jab, although he has softened those positions to curry favour with senators.
He also earned $11.6mn from vaccine lawsuits over the past two years and has said he would keep a 10 per cent stake in any windfall from litigation against Merck’s Gardasil vaccine. One of his closest advisers — lawyer Aaron Siri — also led a lawsuit trying to revoke the most widely used polio vaccine.
McConnell, a polio survivor, has taken issue with Kennedy’s antivax comments, warning in December that undermining confidence in “proven cures” was “dangerous”. Representatives for McConnell, and fellow rebels on the Hegseth vote Murkowski and Collins, did not respond to requests for comment.
Kennedy’s vow to ban high-fructose corn syrup had also worried senators with states in the agricultural heartlands, the people close to him said.
Democratic senators such as Sheldon Whitehouse and John Fetterman have flirted with supporting Kennedy’s nomination, potentially complicating the vote. Neither senator responded to requests for comment.
The weeklong delay to Kennedy’s Senate hearings also pointed to some concerns that he did not have enough support, Washington insiders noted.
“When it’s all kumbaya, it’s in your incentive to push ahead with the hearings. Delay is not your friend,” said David Bowen, the former health policy director of the Senate health committee. “At best, he will sneak through on a close vote.”
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