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France and Britain are drawing up plans to create a “reassurance force” that would rely on western air power, backed by the US, to enforce any ceasefire deal in Ukraine and deter potential Russian aggression.
The plans, which western officials said were still being fleshed out, give a bigger role to western air forces than proposals previously floated by European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron that potentially involved a large number of soldiers deployed to Ukraine.
Instead they rely on a domain where western militaries have a clear advantage over Russia: their air forces. Land troops would instead be used, at least initially, to protect key Ukrainian sites, such as ports and nuclear power stations.
The aim, western officials said, was to establish an overpowering deterrent that in effect dissuades Russia from breaking any ceasefire deal and so creates conditions for lasting peace in the country.
“The area we have a significant advantage over Russia is in the air and in [our] ability to respond to [any] flagrant abuses of a ceasefire,” one western official said. “It is a punitive approach, to be able to punish Russia if that were to emerge.” But, the official added, the “whole idea is that the challenge does not emerge”.
Senior US and Russian diplomats agreed at a meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to negotiate a settlement to an end to the war.
Sir Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, is due to visit Donald Trump in Washington next week, where he will discuss the European proposal and how it might meld with what the US is prepared to offer. The US president in recent days has shocked European allies with his scathing criticism of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, raising fears that the negotiated deal would favour Russia.
Starmer said on Monday that any European military contribution to enforcing a Ukraine ceasefire would require what he called “a US backstop”.
“A US security guarantee is the only effective way to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again,” Starmer said.
Officials stressed that the plan need to be fleshed out, and could eventually involve a large land forces deployed, if not in Ukraine, then on its western borders.
“Troops on the ground would need to be ready to fight in order to deter,” said a second western official. A third official said that some capitals were already discussing the outlines of their proposals with the military leadership of Nato.
The Ukraine mission could be led by the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force, a Franco-British formation, commanded either from UK headquarters at Northwood, London, or the French headquarters at Fort Mont-Valérien outside Paris. Other European countries would also potentially contribute.
“Discussions are still in progress, with several countries,” said a fourth western official. “Different modes of action are envisaged depending on the countries, with air power playing its part,” the official added.
The Elysée declined to comment.
Separately to the Franco-British concept, European Council president António Costa is surveying the EU’s 27 capitals to draw up a list of what the bloc is willing to collectively provide to Ukraine in terms of troops and weaponry that could serve as security guarantees to enforce any peace deal, according to officials briefed on the ongoing conversations.
Additional reporting by Laura Dubois in Brussels and Leila Abboud in Paris
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