It’s a big week on the economic data and policy fronts. Investors will contend with major inflation data and central bank meetings, plus other economic and earnings releases.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy committee will announce a decision on Wednesday. Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a pause in interest rate hikes. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the consumer price index for May on Tuesday, followed by the producer equivalent on Wednesday. The consensus estimates are for increases of 4.2% and 1.5%, respectively.
Other economic data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for May on Tuesday, the Census Bureau’s retail sales data for May on Thursday, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for June on Friday.
Earnings reports will come from
Oracle
on Monday,
Lennar
on Wednesday, and
Adobe
and
Kroger
on Thursday.
Home Depot
will also host an investor day on Tuesday.
Monday 6/12
Oracle reports fourth-quarter fiscal-2023 earnings.
Tuesday 6/13
Home Depot hosts its 2023 investor and analyst conference.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for May. Consensus estimate is for the CPI to increase 4.2% year over year, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 5.2%. This compares with gains of 4.9% and 5.5%, respectively, in April.
The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for May. Expectations are for an 89 reading, matching the April data. The index remains mired well below historical averages as small-business owners struggle to find qualified workers for open positions.
Wednesday 6/14
Lennar releases second-quarter fiscal-2023 results.
BlackRock holds its 2023 investor day.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 26% chance that the FOMC will raise the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5.25%-5.50%. Pause, skip, or hike has been the debate on Wall Street since the central bank’s last meeting in early May. The most likely outcome is for the FOMC to skip this meeting but hike interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point when it next meets in late July.
The BLS releases the producer price index for May. The PPI is expected to rise 1.5% year over year, nearly a full percentage point less than in April. The core PPI is seen increasing 2.9%, three-tenths of a percentage point less than previously. The PPI is currently at its lowest level since January of 2021.
Thursday 6/15
Adobe reports second-quarter fiscal-2023 results. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the company to earn $3.79 a share, up 13% from last year’s second quarter, on $4.8 billion in sales, a 9% increase. Shares of the software maker are up 35% this year, slightly outperforming the Nasdaq 100.
Kroger hosts a conference call to discuss quarterly results.
The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to raise its key short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, from 3.25% to 3.5%. Traders expect at least one more rate hike after this coming meeting as inflation has proved to be more stubborn in the euro zone than stateside.
The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for May. The consensus call is for retail spending to remain flat month over month at $686 billion, following a 0.4% increase in April.
Friday 6/16
The University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index for June. Economists forecast a still-dour 60 reading, one point more than in May.
Write to Nicholas Jasinski at [email protected]
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