The launch of Meta Platforms’ Threads looks to have outpaced even the viral success of ChatGPT in terms of signing up users. The next challenge will be keeping them around.
Threads hit more than 100 million users early Monday, according to data-tracking website Quiver Quantitative. That suggests an extraordinarily rapid and sustained rate of sign-ups since the
Meta
(ticker: META) app’s launch last week as it aims to dethrone Elon Musk’s Twitter as the go-to microblogging app.
To put the success of Threads into perspective, it’s worth remembering that when artificial-intelligence-powered-chatbot ChatGPT topped 100 million users less than three months after its launch it was hailed as potentially setting the record for the fastest-growing app ever. TikTok took nine months to reach the same user base, while Meta’s own Instagram didn’t reach the same number of users for more than two years.
However, ChatGPT’s recent history also contains a warning for Threads: To disrupt an established leader it’s not enough to just start with a bang.
Last month, ChatGPT’s traffic dropped for the first time since its launch. Meanwhile,
Microsoft’s
(MSFT) Bing—now powered by the same AI technology behind ChatGPT—still isn’t making many inroads against the search-engine dominance of
Alphabet’s
(GOOG) Google. Analysts at
Oppenheimer
wrote in a recent research note that
Similarweb
data showed increased Bing usage has had no impact on Google Search volume.
Threads vs. Twitter is likely to be much more of a winner-takes-all contest than ChatGPT/Bing vs Google as users will naturally gravitate toward whichever social media network is more active.
For now, Threads has gained an advantage because changes to Twitter under Musk’s ownership have left parts of its user base seeking an alternative. However, the key will be how many users it can keep coming back every day and providing the engagement valuable to advertisers.
Analysts at Evercore estimate Threads could potentially reach close to 200 million daily active users in the next few years and generate $8 billion in annual revenue.That suggests confidence Meta can make Threads a more compelling platform for advertisers than Twitter, which generated $5.1 billion of revenue in 2021 when it claimed 217 million daily active users at the end of the year, before Musk’s takeover.
The Evercore analysts reiterated an Outperform rating on Meta stock with a target price of $350. Meta shares were up 1.1% in premarket trading on Monday at around $294.
If Meta is to deliver on the promise of Threads, it still has work to do. The developers of Threads already have admitted they need to implement features such as search capabilities, hashtags, and a following feed. That’s not even mentioning the privacy issues which appear to be blocking the app from launching in the European Union or what happens when the company enables the ability to delete a Threads account without also deleting its associated Instagram account, something the developers said they were working on. A strong start is only the first step when it comes to building a social network.
Write to Adam Clark at [email protected]
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