Treasury debt yields fell on Tuesday as concerns about slow Chinese economic growth lingered and traders waited for June U.S. retail sales data.
What’s happening
-
The yield on the 2-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.729%
slipped by 3.8 basis points to 4.704%. -
The yield on the 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.773%
retreated 4.9 basis points to 3.763%. -
The yield on the 30-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD30Y,
3.897%
fell 3.5 basis points to 3.895%.
What’s driving markets
Benchmark Treasury yields drifted lower as concerns about weak growth in China continued to encourage optimism that global inflationary pressures are subsiding.
The 10-year U.S. yield was trading at its lowest level in nearly three weeks ,having dropped about 30 basis points since July 7 after data last week showed U.S. inflation in June hit its lowest level in more than two years.
Investors will be eyeing June retail sales data due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern for clues as to how much impact the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since March 2022 has had on household spending.
Markets are pricing in a 97% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its meeting on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The chance of another 25 basis point hike at the next meeting in September is priced at just 12% and for the November meeting 22%.
The central bank is not expected to take its Fed funds rate target back down to around 5% until April 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.
Other economic data due Tuesday include June industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. Eastern. Business inventories for May and the home builder confidence index for July will be published at 10 a.m.
What are analysts saying
“A better-than-expected read could fuel inflation expectations and slowdown the U.S dollar’s selloff but unless we see seriously strong data, any improvement will unlikely to turn the bearish winds around in the medium run,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
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