Apple Shares Down While Consumer Prices Are Up

Key Takeaways

• CPI Mixed
• Apple
  AAPL
  Event Lacks Excitement
• Oil Prices Increasing

An uninspiring Apple event and disappointing earnings from Oracle
ORCL
sent stocks lower Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1%. With a potential autoworker strike looming and today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being stronger than expected, we’ll see if stocks continue to fall. Core CPI (excludes fuel and energy) in August showed prices increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, slightly higher than the 0.2% forecast. CPI (including food and energy) increased 0.6%, in line with forecasts. On a year-over-year basis, CPI increased 3.7% vs. expectations of 3.6%.

On Monday, after the close, Oracle announced earnings that missed forecasts and delivered a disappointing outlook for the remainder of the year. Analysts were looking for revenue growth in the current quarter of 8%, but the company said the actual number will be somewhere between 5-7%. Shares of Oracle were down 13%, the largest single day loss for the company since 2002 when the stock fell 15%.

Shares of Apple were also down Tuesday. China claimed security issues were behind the recent announcements restricting the use of iPhones. According to an article in Bloomberg, China is also planning to expanding the ban on iPhones from state-owned companies to state-backed companies. That news came on the heels of Apples unveiling of the iPhone 15. The announcement was subdued in comparison to prior years with much of the focus being on improved performance and battery life. Apple’s stock fell 1.7% on Tuesday and are down 10% from their July high. Shares are indicated slightly lower in premarket activity.

Automaker stocks rallied yesterday after the United Autoworkers Workers (UAW) softened on some of their demands. At the same time, UBS issued a buy rating on Ford after having been bearish and also initiated coverage on General Motors
GM
with a buy rating. I find this interesting given the risk of a strike being just a day away. Shares of Ford were up 1.9% Tuesday while General Motors and Stellantis both gained 2.6%.

Also happening this morning, Deloitte is forecasting holiday retail sales to be up 3.5 – 4.6% this year. This is a report that caught my eye for a few reasons. As I discussed last week, consumer debt levels reached $1 trillion for the first time ever during the second quarter. Also, the rate of rejections for credit cards is at its highest level since 2021 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Then lastly, we’re seeing oil prices spike and increases in oil prices can quickly lead to more inflationary pressures forcing shoppers to choose between filling up their cars with gas or buying their kids GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip (and if you don’t get that reference, you’ve not seen one of the all-time great holiday movies, Trading Places). I’ll be monitoring this to see if forecasts change at all as the holiday season nears. Still, to see an increasing forecast is a positive for the economy as a whole.

A few other items worth noting include Birkenstock filing for an initial public offering. The shoe company is looking to raise $7 billion. Moderna says it has developed a new flu vaccine with greater efficacy than exiting vaccines and will seek FDA approval. Finally, I want to point out levels in the VIX. Despite the pullback yesterday, volatility continues to stay subdued. In premarket, VIX is under 14.50. Traders typically look to VIX for confirmation of directional moves in the market. On up days in the market, VIX should fall and on down days for stocks, it should increase. However, we just have not seen VIX rise much at all on days where the market is down. Therefore, I get the sense the market remains in a bit of no-man’s land and there’s little reason to believe we’ll see a big directional move one way or the other. As always, I would stick with your investing plans and long term objectives.

tastytrade, Inc. commentary for educational purposes only. This content is not, nor is intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any investment product or strategy is suitable for any person.