Oil prices settle lower as prospects for weaker demand outweigh supply deficit concerns

Price action

• West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery
  CL00,
  +0.31%

  CLV23,
  +0.31%
  fell 32 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $88.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $89.64. Prices for the front-month contract settled Tuesday at their highest of the year.

• November Brent
  BRN00,
  +0.34%

  BRNX23,
  +0.34%
  declined by 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $91.88 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

• October gasoline
  RBV23,
  -0.01%
  settled at $2.74 a gallon, up 0.4%, while October heating oil
  HOV23,
  -0.01%
  added 3.2% to $3.44 a gallon.

• October natural gas
  NGV23,
  +1.16%
  fell 2.3% to $2.68 per million British thermal units.

Risk of global supply deficit

In its monthly report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency forecast a “substantial market deficit” in the fourth quarter.

It said that cuts from Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have taken 2.5 million barrels a day of crude off the market since January. The cuts have largely been offset by record supply coming from the U.S. and Brazil, with non-OPEC supply up 1.9 million barrels a day.

But the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut supplies by a combined 1.3 million barrels a day through year-end means the market is now likely to see a deficit of about 1.1 million barrels a day through the fourth quarter, the IEA said.

The IEA’s demand projection of year-on-year growth at 2.2 million barrel a day lies somewhere in the middle between the Energy Information Administration’s 1.8 million barrel a day forecast and OPEC’s 2.4 million barrels a day forecast, StoneX’s Kansas City energy team, led by Alex Hodes, wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter, ahead of the EIA supply data.

The IEA report comes after OPEC’s monthly update on Tuesday left forecasts for supply growth in 2023 and 2024 unchanged.

Data released Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer prices climbed by 0.6% in August — the biggest increase in 14 months — largely because of higher oil prices. The so-called core inflation figure, excluding energy and food prices, rose by a smaller 0.3%.

The CPI report ran on the “hot side,” especially on the core figure, which will “bolster the case for a ‘higher for longer’ Fed policy rate outlook, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. That raises the threat that the central bank “chokes off growth and sends the economy into recession,” which is never a good scenario for oil demand.

Over in Libya, there are “growing concerns over potential supply disruptions due to catastrophic flooding,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in commentary emailed overnight.

“The severe flooding in Libya, which has caused damage to numerous ports and infrastructure, has thrown into disarray the country’s ability to export oil,” he said.

U.S. supply update

Also on Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 8. That was the first weekly rise reported by the EIA in five weeks.

On average, analysts expected a crude inventory decline of 1 million barrels, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday said crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week, according to a source citing the figures.

U.S. crude inventories have “yielded a solid build despite refining activity increasing,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst, Americas, at Kpler, in emailed commentary. Oil inventories at the Nymex delivery hub at Cushing, Okla., dropped to their lowest level this year, due to much higher net imports, he said.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub down by 2.4 million barrels for the week, the EIA said, while total U.S. petroleum production rose by 100,000 barrels to 12.9 million barrels a day.

If the domestic output figure continues to rise in the weeks ahead, said Richey, “the expected deficit in the global market will begin to shrink, which has bearish implications for prices.”

The EIA report also revealed supply increases of 5.6 million barrels for gasoline and 3.9 million barrels for distillates. Analysts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights had forecast a weekly inventory decline of 1.4 barrels for gasoline, while distillate supplies were expected to be flat for the week.