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New Zealand goes to the polls on Saturday, with the ruling Labour party facing the prospect of defeat to a rightwing coalition following the resignation of charismatic former leader Dame Jacinda Ardern.
As deepening economic and social rifts divide the Pacific nation, the latest public opinion polling suggests that Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, who replaced Ardern this year, is likely to be unseated by a centre-right coalition led by National party leader Christopher Luxon, a former corporate executive.
According to the latest 1News Verian poll, National and the rightwing ACT party are set to win 58 of 120 seats in parliament, while a bloc formed by Labour with junior leftwing partners the Greens and indigenous party Te Pāti Māori would have 54.
Winston Peters, a 78-year-old pro-US populist, is forecast to have the balance of power, with his New Zealand First party tracking to hold the remaining eight seats. Peters, whose party failed to win a single seat in the 2020 poll, served as foreign minister and deputy prime minister under Ardern’s coalition and is anti-immigration.
A loss for Labour would mark a striking turnaround from the 2020 election, when the party won a sweeping victory under Ardern and the public backed her socially progressive platform and stringent pandemic border controls.
The former prime minister, who raised New Zealand’s international profile during her five years in power but became increasingly politically isolated at home, suddenly stepped down in January.
Charles Finny, a former diplomat and trade negotiator, said while New Zealand’s foreign policy has historically been mostly bipartisan, there were now “big differences” emerging, including over China’s growing influence in the region, the Five Eyes intelligence network and the Israel-Hamas war that erupted last weekend.
“There will be a sigh of relief in key capitals if National-ACT-NZ First are elected on Saturday,” he said, adding that a National-led government “will be stronger in support of Israel”.
Foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta, the first Maori woman to hold the foreign affairs portfolio, faced criticism this week for failing to swiftly condemn Palestinian militant group Hamas for the attacks on Israel, which killed more than 1,000 people.
Since being appointed in late 2020, Mahuta has spoken out against China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour against Hong Kong and Taiwan, but she has also pursued a more independent foreign policy, balking at US-led efforts to strengthen the Five Eyes network, which also includes the UK, Canada and Australia, to confront Beijing.
However, there is also uncertainty over how a National-led government would approach China, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Luxon, a former Unilever executive, is a close ally of Sir John Key, the former prime minister who maintains a personal friendship with China’s president Xi Jinping.
Domestically, the lead-up to Saturday’s poll has exposed widening social fissures, with anger brewing over successive government’s failures to address a broken housing market, worsening inequality and rising gang-related violence.
“In tough times it’s natural to look for change, but change has consequences,” Hipkins urged voters on the campaign trail, warning that New Zealand would go “backwards on climate change” under Luxon.
While both National and Labour have promised a tougher stance on crime, neither has laid out a platform of major economic policy changes nor meaningful housing market reforms despite a cost of living crisis and high inflation.
If the election fails to deliver a clear mandate for either leading party, as the polls suggest, the kingmaking role could pass to Peters, who first entered parliament in 1978 and formed governments with Labour in 2017 and 2005 and with National in 1996. But the process of forming a government is likely to be negotiated behind closed doors and could take weeks.
Additional reporting by Nic Fildes in Sydney
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