By Elena Vardon
AstraZeneca is scheduled to report results for its fourth quarter on Thursday. Here is what you need to know:
REVENUE: The Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical giant’s total revenue is expected to be $12.01 billion for the three months ended Dec. 31, up from $11.21 billion in the same quarter a year prior, according to a company-compiled consensus based on 17 analyst estimates.
CORE EARNINGS PER SHARE: Core earnings per share are expected to rise to $1.50 from $1.38 the year prior, according to the same consensus.
Shares in the FTSE 100 company trade flat on Wednesday late morning at around 10,530 pence and have slipped 0.45% over the past 12 months.
WHAT TO WATCH:
— Regarding 2023 guidance, the London-listed group has said that it expects mid-single digit total revenue percentage growth–on $44.35 billion reported for 2022–and an increase by a low-teens percentage growth excluding COVID-19 medicines. It also sees low double-digit to low-teens core EPS percentage growth for the year, on $6.66 per share the previous year. Investors will be watching whether AstraZeneca’s actual figures meet or miss guidance.
— On revenue drivers, AstraZeneca’s oncology therapy area–which drives the most growth–is expected to show higher revenue boosted in part by its lung cancer drug Tagrisso. Growth in its cardiovascular, renal & metabolic portfolio is seen led by its diabetes drug Farxiga while its rare disease portfolio should see an improvement from sales of Soliris and Ultomiris, drugs for rare blood disorders, Leerink Partners analysts wrote in a research note.
— Looking forward to 2024 guidance, the company is expected to guide for around low-double digits percentage growth for earnings per share, despite its significant investment into its late-stage pipeline, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. “A key focus will continue to be how [AstraZeneca] leverages their significantly increased cash flow, particularly ahead of the Farxiga patent expiry in 2025, and competitive pressure to the rare disease portfolio,” Leerink Partners wrote.
— The market will be interested in an update on the European biopharma sector’s thematics into 2024. These include a pickup in M&A given patent expiry concerns and long-term growth ambitions, a wave of obesity data emerging with implications for market consolidation and the pricing of drugs in the U.S., according to Morgan Stanley. AstraZeneca’s pipeline appreciation could significantly expand in the year ahead, the brokerage said. Proof-of-concept data for its proprietary “smart chemo”, next generation immuno-oncology and DNA damage repair platforms in 2024 could potentially deliver value across a range of cancers in the long term, it added.
Write to Elena Vardon at [email protected]
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