CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.’s stock has been a big winner so far in 2023, surging about 90% on the year, and a new bull thinks it has further to run.
Adam Borg took over Stifel’s coverage of CrowdStrike shares
CRWD,
Monday, upgrading them to buy from hold and writing that the cybersecurity company stands out in a crowded market for endpoint security.
“CrowdStrike’s differentiation is its high-efficacy cloud-based endpoint technology, lightweight single-agent architecture, and massive scale analyzing over 1 trillion events daily,” Borg wrote, as he lifted Stifel’s price target on the stock to $225 from $153.
Borg expects to see consolidation of cybersecurity platforms over the next few years, and he thinks CrowdStrike will be able to take advantage in that environment.
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“[A] softer economic backdrop coupled with the ongoing shortage of cybersecurity professionals, a heightened focus on overall cost/[total cost of ownership], additional C-Suite scrutiny/prioritization, and the aforementioned integration challenges offers an opportunity for larger platform vendors to use their established position, and ability to bundle at attractive prices, to consolidate cybersecurity spend at the expense of point solutions,” he wrote, while noting that a “best of breed” player like CrowdStrike is set up well.
Despite the run-up in the stock price this year, Borg also sees an attractive valuation. The shares trade at 9.2 times enterprise value to Borg’s estimates for calendar 2025 revenue, and they trade at a 28.8-times multiple of enterprise value to estimated 2025 free cash flow. Peers, by contrast, trade at 10 times and 36 times, respectively.
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He expects that CrowdStrike will be able to sustain revenue growth of somewhere in the low-to-mid-20% range — at least — while improving its operating margin and free-cash-flow generation. Those factors could drive multiple expansion, according to Borg.
CrowdStrike’s stock was up nearly 2% in morning trading Monday.
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