Tesla’s fourth quarterly deliveries are due Tuesday morning. It’s a big number for the company.
Tesla
is trying to bounce back from a disappointing third-quarter result while fending off Chinese competition for the title of the largest maker of battery electric vehicles in the world.
Wall Street expects Tesla to report deliveries between 475,000 and 480,000 units. That would be a record from the 466,000 delivered in the second quarter of 2023 and a nice rebound from the 435,000 delivered in the third quarter of this past year. Any number above 475,000 should be fine for the stock.
Anything can happen, though, following the report. Tesla stock is volatile after reporting deliveries. Shares have moved an average of about 7%, up or down, following the last eight reports. The stock has dropped three times and risen five times.
The biggest rise was after the fourth quarter 2021 delivery report when shares rose almost 14%. The biggest drop followed fourth quarter 2022 deliveries when the stock gave up more than 12%.
It’s a small sample size, but shares are more likely to continue doing what they have done in recent trading after a delivery report. The stock price reaction to deliveries has been in the same direction as the stock change for the month coming into deliveries in five of the past eight reports.
Coming into Tuesday trading, Tesla shares are up about 2% over the past month. Given the prior pattern, the rise would be a small positive for Tesla stock. But the 2% move is the smallest move coming into the report out of the past eight quarters.
Tesla stock rose 102% in 2023, after falling 65% in 2022. The
Nasdaq Composite
and
S&P 500
added roughly 43% and 24%, respectively.
For Tesla stock, the drop in 2022 was only the second time Tesla stock has fallen in a calendar year since the company’s 2010 IPO. Shares gained an incredible 740% in 2020. That was the year Tesla started selling the Model Y which should end 2023 as the best-selling car on the planet.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
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