Tesla
stock is up on the first trading day after Christmas, which tends to be a wild day for shares of the electric-vehicle leader.
Shares were up 1.4% in midday trading, while the
S&P 500
and
Nasdaq Composite
were up 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.
China seems to be the biggest reason for the boost. Weekly insurance- registration data tracked by Wall Street show that Tesla is having a record quarter in the world’s largest market for battery-electric vehicles. Registrations are a proxy for sales volume.
Tesla will report its fourth-quarter delivery data on Jan. 2. Analysts expect a record total of roughly 475,000 units were sold, up from about 435,000 delivered in the third quarter. The company doesn’t disclose quarterly sales numbers by region.
Data from industry associations, however, offer information about what is happening. Chinese registration data show that Tesla delivered some 18,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles this past week, bringing the quarter-to-date total to some 155,000 units with one week to go, according to Citi analyst Jeff Chung.
That excludes the more expensive Model S and X, which typically account for about 3% to 5% of overall sales. The best quarter Tesla has ever had in China was about 156,000 units delivered in the second quarter of 2023. Tesla should surpass that amount with only two of its four models selling in China.
Record Chinese sales give investors some confidence that the overall number reported on Jan. 2 will be a record.
The refreshed Model 3 is also selling well. Tesla has sold about 30,000 of its updated Model 3s in China so far in the fourth quarter. That is up from about 23,000 sold in the third quarter of 2023.
Tuesday’s post-Christmas rise follows a pattern for Tesla stock. Shares have gained 10 of the 14 post-Christmas sessions since Tesla became a publicly traded company in 2010.
The day after Christmas also tends to be volatile. The stock moves an average of 4%, up or down, in the first session following Christmas. The average move is a loss of 0.1% because while gains outnumber losses, the down days are severe. Tesla stock dropped 11% the day after Christmas in 2022 as investors worried about rising interest rates and CEO Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter, now known as X.
Tesla stock finished 2022 down some 65% but through midday on Tuesday, the shares were up about 108% so far in 2023.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
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