Apple
stock finally ended its post-earnings losing streak on Tuesday only to begin a new one on Wednesday. Don’t be surprised if it keeps falling.
Yes, it might be tempting to buy the Apple dip. The stock, after all, has been one of the market’s biggest winners over the past decade, and most declines have been long-term buying opportunities. And there might be a sense of relief after Apple stock rose 0.5% on Tuesday, ending its five-day losing streak.
Unfortunately, more declines may be in store for the stock. It isn’t just that the stock fell 0.9% on Wednesday or that the company’s revenue is sliding as hardware sales decline, though that is a problem. It’s that the chart looks absolutely terrible, with shares now trading below their 50-day moving average:
That break was the first time in 136 trading days that Apple had closed below its 50-day moving average, the longest such streak since 2009. “The drop has done a lot of technical damage in just a few trading days,” according to Bespoke Investment Group.
The end of the streak point to some more short-term pain ahead. After the eight previous times when the stock has fallen below its 50-day moving average after trading above it for 125 days or more, the stock has fallen an average of 6.2% of the next month, and returns over the following three months were decided mixed.
The good news, though, is that Apple went on to post strong gains over the six and 12 months after dropping below its 50-day moving average. “Given that Apple has been one of the top performing stocks of the past couple [of] decades, we think the near-term weakness shares have historically seen following breaks below the 50-DMA is worth paying attention to,” Bespoke says.
Fairlead Tactics’ Katie Stockton sees a potential correction Apple stock that could last as long as eight weeks, with shares targeting $170, down 4.6% from a recent closing price of $178.29
In other words, a buying opportunity may be coming—it’s just not here yet.
Write to Ben Levisohn at [email protected]
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