Wall Street is betting that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate increases in September, and traders will be scouring the minutes from the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting for clues on the central bank’s next move.
The minutes, which will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, will help provide insight into how Fed officials view the strength of the U.S. economy.
Released several weeks after each official Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the minutes can be a road map for where officials see monetary policy heading. The July minutes—coming ahead of the annual summer convention next week in Jackson Hole, Wyo.—hit at a time when many economic indicators contain mixed signals.
Recent reports have shown a strong but cooling labor market while inflation is down sharply from a year ago. Even so, Fed officials, mindful that annual inflation is still well above its 2% target, opted to raise rates a quarter of a percentage point at their July meeting. The decision left the fed-funds rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest upper range in 22 years.
The decision to raise rates after skipping a rate hike in June, paired with officials’ note that the U.S. economy was growing at a “moderate” pace suggested that the Fed’s outlook had strengthened in recent weeks. Additionally, Fed staff are no longer calling for a recession later this year.
“The staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast, but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted at the July press conference.
Since the July meeting, government data has continued to provide conflicting messages. The July jobs report showed the number of jobs added came in below expectations, but unemployment dipped to 3.5% and wage gains remained solid. Meanwhile headline inflation ticked up to 3.2% last month, even as core inflation—which excludes food and energy costs—slowed to a 4.7% annual pace from 4.8% in June.
Economic growth hasn’t slowed either. The U.S. economy grew faster-than-expected at a rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, outpacing both first-quarter growth of 2%, according to initial estimates of gross domestic product.
Tuesday’s release of the July retail sales growth continued that trend, showing spending was stronger than expected last month, even as manufacturing activity continues to struggle. A resilient labor market, solid wage gains, slowing inflation, and strong household finances are helping drive consumer spending.
The next FOMC meeting is slated for Sept. 19-20, by which point there will be more fresh data on the labor market, inflation and other economic indicators. Yet if the signals don’t dramatically shift in the coming weeks, economists and market participants are betting that Fed officials pause again.
The likelihood that the Fed keeps the benchmark rate steady in September is at 88.5% as of Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks moves in interest-rate futures.
Yet Chair Powell has said that determining the extent of additional increases will be done meeting by meeting and officials will, of course, continue to be very data dependent. “I would say it is certainly possible that we would raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted. And I would also say it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady at that meeting. We’re going to be making careful assessments, as I said, meeting by meeting” Powell said.
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