The period from the 19th to the 23rd has been one of the most bearish seasonal periods in any year, down over 80% of the time. In addition, the dynamic monthly cycle is falling. There is a projected turning point on the 22nd, likely a low. The 108.9 level is likely to be tested.
The nearby support level and the very negative sentiment are the 2 most supportive developments for bonds. This is the 2022 low and more importantly is the 38.2% retracement level of the entire 1983-2022 rally. A break of this level would be most bearish and a harbinger of much lower prices.
Notes September Daily Histogram
Daily Notes
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