Embraer lags in orders at Paris Airshow, but longer-term recovery seen

By Gabriel Araujo

SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Investors were left disappointed by weaker-than-expected order numbers for Brazil’s Embraer at the world’s largest airshow last week, though some analysts were heartened by a bid from China and interest in Embraer’s electric aircraft unit.

The world’s third-largest aircraft maker after Airbus and Boeing (NYSE:), Embraer bagged 13 fresh orders for commercial jets at the Paris Airshow, falling short of market estimates and previous years’ levels.

That led shares in the company to fall roughly 18% in a week, reversing the 11% gain realized in the days ahead of the show, when market players seemed excited by the prospects of new deals.

The 13 new orders compared with 74 secured at Le Bourget in 2019 and 28 in Farnborough last year. They also lagged some upbeat market forecasts, including expectations by JPMorgan (NYSE:) analysts for at least 30 orders.

The U.S. bank said in a note to clients on Tuesday that it hosted Embraer for a webinar and the company acknowledged the low number of orders announced, but said it was in line with its strategy to preserve margins and profitability.

“Embraer continues to hold talks with several airlines, both in the U.S. and abroad, and expects to announce more new orders in the midterm,” JPMorgan said as it reiterated its “overweight” rating on the firm.

In Paris, investors were especially disappointed by the lack of orders from the booming Indian airline market, which handled an all-time-high 500-plane transaction to Airbus and new orders to Boeing.

SLOW BUT LUCRATIVE

Still, a number of analysts remain bullish on the Brazilian company as a post-pandemic travel rebound continues to drive money into the sector.

BTG Pactual, which has a “buy” recommendation for Embraer, noted that the sales to existing clients Binter and American Airlines (NASDAQ:) were equivalent to 19% of its outlook of 65-70 deliveries this year, making them “significant deals.”

Those orders add to a backlog that remains robust, with the E2 aircraft seen as largely sold out for this year and 2024 after garnering new customers such as Royal Jordanian, Salam Air and Scoot recently.

Other upbeat takes from the airshow came from Embraer’s electric aircraft subsidiary Eve, which signed deals for the sale of up to 150 flying cars, as well as Embraer’s deal to return to China by converting passenger jets into freighters.

JPMorgan called Eve the “big winner” of the event, as the New York-listed company announced key equipment suppliers and increased its industry-leading backlog, outpacing global peers.

Eve’s shares rose as much as 7% on Tuesday, while Embraer was trading up 2%, holding on to gains of around 20% year-to-date, as some analysts believe upside remains.

“We believe that most of the pre-event excitement has already been adjusted in share prices,” said XP (NASDAQ:) Investimentos, while also rates Embraer a “buy.” “There is limited room for further pressure.”