Salesforce renewals risk makes Citi cautious into earnings

Citi analysts lowered their price target on Salesforce (NYSE:) stock by $10 to $220 per share.

The new price target implies an upside potential of about 5%. Salesforce is due to report its earnings on Wednesday, after market close.

“We reiterate our Neutral rating as top-line growth trends remain pressured amid renewal risk heading into CQ4/2024 and as expectations on margin expansion have largely played out,” analysts wrote in a note sent to Citi clients.

The analysts highlight several recent developments, including CRM’s “heavily marketed, yet relatively underwhelming AI event in June”, price increases, and organizational changes.

While Citi’s checks showed signs of improvement in new projects, this positive aspect was offset by growing concerns related to renewals and shelfware. These concerns, more prominently anticipated in Q3/Q4 compared to Q2, were coupled with reports of aggressive sales strategies employed to secure deals in Q2.

“We heard some partners mention how CRM has been using the surprise price increase to incentivize customers with open opportunities (upsells, etc.) to renew early. A big overhang remains the large contract renewal risk due to shelfware, which we worry about more for FQ4 (Citi 250 bps below street on Q4 cRPO) and next year,” analysts added.

CRM stock is up 58% year-to-date.