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For years, China has asserted its claims over the South China Sea — a quest for control that is an affront to neighbours’ security, to global commerce and, according to a tribunal in The Hague, to international law. Yet Beijing has been adroit: using “salami-slicing” tactics to expand its influence by incrementally building military installations, but never doing so at a pace that would force Washington to take military action.
Recent spats with the Philippines, however, suggest that opposition to Beijing is rising. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has directed his navy to better secure the Second Thomas Shoal, a contested reef that is far closer to the Philippines than to China. It has done so by reinforcing the Sierra Madre, a grounded and dilapidated ship that doubles as a Philippine military installation — which China hoped would fall back into the sea.
Beijing has, in turn, become more aggressive. Its paramilitary vessels have rammed Philippine ships and sprayed them with water cannons. Its coast guard has threatened Manila’s boats with knives and hatchets. Marcos has tried to draw international attention to the issue. He has hinted at a red line, too, saying that any Chinese action that kills a Filipino soldier would be seen as “very close . . . to an act of war”.
The reef lies in the middle of the Philippines exclusive economic zone, and is the heart of a vibrant fishery. Losing control of it would threaten Philippine trade and security, and harm the many Filipino fishermen who rely upon the area. Though confronting the superpower is dangerous, the Philippines has exhausted its diplomatic options.
Manila successfully sued Beijing in an arbitration based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The 2016 tribunal found that China was violating many of its neighbours’ territorial sovereignty, and affirmed the Philippines’ control of the Second Thomas Shoal. But Beijing, a signatory of Unclos, has ignored the ruling.
The Philippines’ pleas to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to take a firm stance against China have been fruitless, too. Even years of overtures to Beijing by Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte did not slow China’s expansion.
This leaves the US — and the rest of the world — in a tricky situation. The Philippines provides the US with access to military bases and has a mutual defence agreement with Washington. Escalation risks drawing the two superpowers into conflict.
President Joe Biden has rightly taken a firm stance. He has clarified that the countries’ mutual defence pact would extend to an attack at the Sierra Madre. The US position, of course, would be stronger if it were a signatory to Unclos itself.
Biden has sought to strengthen the Indo-Pacific buffer against China by reinforcing its commitments to the Philippines and Japan. He could also do more to exploit China’s over-reach. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, countries that traditionally co-operate with China, have raised their own concerns about Beijing’s actions. The US should step up efforts to engage them diplomatically, and could consider training and supplying their navies.
How the situation unfolds from here is unpredictable. Beijing’s “non-lethal” methods are meant to lower the risk of a confrontation. But the situation could easily escalate — a water cannon, after all, can cause death. All sides must exercise caution, and it is positive that Beijing and Washington have reportedly increased communications over the past week. Beijing should cease its brinkmanship, and the US should continue to deter Chinese aggression without crossing the line into provocation.
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