COP29 begins in Baku, Biden visits Peru and Reeves makes first Mansion House speech

Hello and welcome to the working week.

We kick off the next seven days with the start of the world’s most important climate negotiation event, the UN COP29 summit in Azerbaijan’s capital city Baku. Choosing an economy highly dependent on oil sales to host the two-week gathering of politicians, business executives and activists was a contentious decision when it was announced, made more so last week when video footage emerged showing the chief executive of Azerbaijan’s COP29 team, Elnur Soltanov, discussing “investment opportunities” in the state oil and gas company.

To make matters worse, the summit that organisers had dubbed “the finance COP” is expected to be shunned by prominent financiers, including the bosses of Bank of America, BlackRock, Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank, according to FT sources. FT Live will be part of the action, however, hosting debates on the summit’s key announcements and agreements. Register for free at ftcop.live.ft.com.

Elsewhere, and while the US further digests the implications of a second Donald Trump presidency, the current man in the job, Joe Biden, is boarding a plane to South America. He begins a state visit to Peru and Brazil on Thursday where he will meet the two countries’ leaders and take part in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, this year being held in Lima.

In the UK, chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey will be explaining themselves to senior bankers and other bosses from the country’s financial services sector at the annual Mansion House dinner, so called because it is held at the official residence of the City of London’s Lord Mayor. This year’s after dinner speeches will be delivered at a key moment, with Reeves’ late October Budget still fresh in the memory and concerns raised about the subsequent challenges now faced by the bank in taming inflation.

The run of economic data reports picks up this week. For the US, there will be various key indicators of the state of the economy Trump will inherit, with fresh updates on inflation — the headline figure is expected to rise slightly while core inflation trends lower — retail sales and industrial production numbers. The scale of China’s challenge in restoring growth is the backdrop to its publication of retail sales, industrial production and property data. Meanwhile, the UK number-crunchers make available the latest labour market figures and, along with Japan and the EU, have a first stab at third-quarter GDP.

There will also be a smattering of earnings calls, including mobile and broadband provider Vodafone, fresh from getting the Competition and Markets Authority nod for its £16.5bn merger with Three UK, and fashion brand Burberry, itself a takeover target in the ailing market for luxury goods.

One more thing . . . 

Thank you to my newsletter colleague Harvey for filling in last week, giving me a few days at home assisting/haranguing my youngest two children, on half-term break, to stay on track revising for pre-Christmas GCSE mock exams and completing the dreaded statement for university applications. Next we enter the season of getting ready for Christmas itself, and the FT’s HTSI has got in early for those with an eye on dates by picking the best luxury advent calendars.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• UK: CIPD Labour Market Outlook

• Results: Continental 9M, Direct Line Q3 trading update, IAC Q3,

Tuesday

• Opec November Oil Market Report

• Germany: October consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• India: October CPI inflation rate data

• UK: November labour market statistics, including the unemployment rate

• US: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) October Business Optimism Index

• Results: AstraZeneca Q3, Bayer Q3, Home Depot Q3, Infineon Technologies Q4, Oxford Instruments HY, SoftBank Q2, Spotify Q3, Vodafone HY

Wednesday

• France: ILO Q3 unemployment rate

• Russia: Q3 GDP first release

• US: October CPI inflation rate data

• Results: ABN Amro Bank Q3, Allianz Q3, Alstom HY, Bertelsmann Q3, Cisco Systems Q1, Experian HY, Fuller, Smith & Turner HY, RTL Q3, RWE Q3, Smiths Group Q1 trading update ahead of AGM, SSE HY, Tencent Q3

Thursday

• Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks alongside UK chancellor Rachel Reeves at the annual financial and professional services dinner at the City of London’s Mansion House

• Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell takes part in the Global Perspectives event in Dallas

• Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock speaks on a panel debate about the state of the economy at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sydney

• IEA Oil Market Report

• EU: Q3 GDP estimate

• UK: RICS Residential Market Survey

• US: October producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Results: 3i Group HY, Applied Materials Q4, Asahi Q3, Aviva Q3 trading update, B&M European Value Retail HY, Burberry HY, Deutsche Telekom Q3, Eon Q3, First Group HY, Foxconn Q3, Great Portland Estates HY, Keller Group trading statement, Kier Group trading update, Metro Bank Q3, Premier Foods HY, Qinetiq HY, Siemens FY, Swiss Re 9M, United Utilities HY, Walt Disney Company Q4, WHSmith FY

Friday

• China: October industrial production and retail sales figures

• EU: Autumn Economic Forecast for GDP, inflation, employment and public finances in the Eurozone area

• France: October CPI and HICP inflation rate data

• India: Guru Nanak’s Birthday. Financial markets closed

• Japan: flash Q3 GDP estimate

• UK: flash Q3 GDP and productivity estimates.

• US: October retail sales and industrial production figures.

• Results: Alibaba Q3, Land Securities HY, Lenovo Q2

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Armistice Day (commemorated in the US as the federal holiday Veterans Day), marking the date that first world war ended in 1918, in which countries now pause to honour all those who have given their lives in times of conflict

• Azerbaijan: COP29, bringing together governments from 197 countries, plus the EU, to check progress on meeting climate change targets, begins in Baku Stadium

• China: Singles Day, an annual holiday created for unmarried people, used by retailers as an opportunity to push store sales

• UK: Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative party’s new leader, is due to give evidence relating to her time as business and trade secretary to the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry, the investigation into the scandal of sub-postmasters being wrongly accused of theft when the software system they were using was at fault

Tuesday

• China: 15th Airshow China opens in Zhuhai. The biennial event runs until Sunday

• UK: The Booker Prize, the most prestigious award for English language fiction writers, is announced at a ceremony in London

Wednesday

• Somaliland: the breakaway region of Somalia holds a presidential election, whose outcome could affect the future of a port deal with Ethiopia that has raised tensions with Mogadishu

Thursday

• Sri Lanka: parliamentary elections

• UK: 76th birthday of King Charles. Military gun salutes will take place across the country to mark the event

• US: President Joe Biden begins a state visit to Peru and Brazil

Friday

Saturday

Sunday