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The torrential rain that affected many regions around the globe over the last week of December is expected to be followed by further turbulence into January, as the El Niño weather pattern remains a major influence.
The naturally occurring phenomenon results in a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, affecting wind flows and triggering both floods and drought.
Scientists believe its effects are exacerbated by climate change, with record temperatures in each month since June putting 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record.
In the UK, following on from last week’s Storm Gerrit, which battered northern areas, causing widespread flooding in Scotland and disruption throughout the nation, further warnings were issued as warm sea temperatures in the Atlantic fuel the jet stream and bring further rain and winds.
The powerful weather system could bring dangerous conditions to Scotland with heavy rains, strong gusts and snowfalls across higher grounds, the UK Met Office forecast on Friday.
Wet conditions have also affected large parts of the US west coast, with gale warnings and high waves expected along the coastal areas of California, Oregon and Washington states into the weekend.
The US east coast from South Carolina up through New York, Pennsylvania and Maine was not spared, suffering a powerful storm last week.
The national weather agency indicated that while New York would experience a dry New Year’s Eve, with average to above-average temperatures expected for most of the country, further wind and rain could be expected in the first week of January.
The US National Weather Service predicted in its latest long-range outlook that the first month of 2024 would continue to see the effects of El Niño, with lower-than-average snow cover across the country.
“El Niño remains the major climate driver and is expected to be the primary influence on the mid-latitude circulation pattern and associated January temperature and precipitation,” forecasters said.
In Europe, flood barriers were also being erected in the Netherlands in anticipation of rising water levels, after several rivers in neighbouring Germany broke their banks.
Regions along the Rhine, Elbe, Lippe, Ruhr and Weser rivers were affected by flooding, with parts of the city of Hamburg submerged.
The Danube also breached its banks in parts of central Budapest, where water levels were at their highest in a decade after heavy rains and snow were followed by melting in the relatively warm weather.
The unseasonably warm and wet conditions have meant ski areas in Italy and France have experienced sparse snow cover at lower altitudes, while flurries were reported in Austria and Switzerland at the peaks.
The Scandinavian and Baltic regions were among those recording heavier snowfalls than last year at high altitudes, however.
In the southern hemisphere, dozens were feared to have died in eastern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, where heavy rainfall caused severe flooding and landslides. Flash floods in parts of South Africa also resulted in at least half a dozen deaths.
Australia’s eastern seaboard has also experienced extensive damage and fatal flooding in the northern state of Queensland, followed by warnings of further heavy thunderstorms in the coming days.
In Malaysia and southern Thailand, rural regions were inundated and communities left struggling to recover possessions and find shelter.
The European Earth observation agency Copernicus said in its most recent forecast that the ongoing El Niño event was “likely to peak in the next two months” before it would weaken to neutral conditions.
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