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Brussels is exploring ways to unlock more than €100bn in EU funding for Poland even if the country’s president vetoes Donald Tusk’s judicial reforms.
The issue is front of mind for Premier Tusk, who came to power last month after campaigning to unblock funds the European Commission had frozen in a long-running dispute with the previous government led by the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS).
To access the funds, the government needs to fulfil a number of conditions or “super milestones” related to judicial independence. The difficulty for Tusk is that president Andrzej Duda, a PiS nominee who will remain in office until 2025, has already blocked other reforms put forward by the new government and has escalated a constitutional row with the prime minister.
Tusk, however, has vowed to fast track judicial reforms to meet the EU milestones and said he hoped Duda would sign them into law.
“We are aiming at reaching [the] milestones within the institutional framework that we have, namely a government fully dedicated to the rule of law and a president who — from time to time — disrespects it. And the commission understands this reality very well,” said a Polish government official.
EU officials have expressed confidence that Duda will not sabotage this law that unlocks Poland’s long-awaited funding.
“It’s for the president, it’s his prerogative to decide,” said commission vice-president Věra Jourová, adding that she has “a feeling that Mr President [Duda] is . . . willing to consider the proposals”.
But should Duda maintain his blockade, an alternative way to unfreeze the funds is being worked on by Brussels and Warsaw, according to people familiar with the discussion.
Justice commissioner Didier Reynders is meeting justice minister Adam Bodnar in Warsaw on Friday to work on how to ensure Poland can fulfil all necessary conditions to access the cash.
“The commission, together with the Polish government, will seek to ensure that equally effective solutions can be found for the remaining issues,” a commission spokesman said.
One option includes partially or fully unlocking €76.5bn in regular EU funds that were held up in late 2022 over judicial independence but that are not formally linked to the “super milestones”.
As for EU post-pandemic recovery funds totalling €35.4bn in loans and grants, Poland would need to access them before they expire in 2026. Brussels and Warsaw are working on a “combination of legislative and non-legislative means” to make that happen, EU and Polish officials have said.
Poland has already requested €7bn in recovery funds and it expects they will be disbursed this spring. Warsaw hopes to receive a total of €23bn in recovery funds this year.
The issue is politically sensitive for commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who needs to ensure that the new pro-EU government in Poland, which hails from the same political family as hers, is not treated favourably.
“There’s lot of appetite in Brussels to help Tusk out and release at least part of this money and ensure that this change in Poland is reflected not just in rhetoric but in some hard cash being handed out as incentive to continue with those reforms,” said Jakub Jaraczewski, research co-ordinator at NGO Democracy Reporting International.
But, he added, “it will be extremely damaging for the commission to release the whole money just based on the Polish government promises”.
Hungary, which also has EU funding frozen due to rule of law issues, has seized on the opportunity to criticise Brussels for its alleged double standards in relation to Warsaw and Budapest.
“It’s enough to look at what is happening in Poland and the reactions in Brussels [to dispel] any doubts about what kind of incorrect, hypocritical and double-standard gang rules Brussels,” said Gergely Gulyás, an adviser to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Siding with the PiS opposition, which in recent days has cried foul at the arrest of former ministers convicted of abuse in office, Gulyás accused EU officials of “having closed their eyes” and ignored fundamental values.
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