France’s high national debt threatens to curb its defence ambitions, raising the risk that one of Europe’s strongest militaries will not be able to keep up with an expected wave of spending.
President Emmanuel Macron has called for the annual military budget to rise to between 3 and 3.5 per cent of national output from about 2 per cent now, implying a doubling of yearly spending from last year’s levels to €100bn in 2030.
Such an effort would bring France in line with new targets for direct military spending that Nato is expected to set at a June summit as the alliance responds to US pressure for Europe to do more on security.
But lawmakers and analysts are questioning whether France can deliver, given that the minority government is struggling to assemble and pass a fiscal package to narrow deficits that are among the region’s worst.
Clément Beaune, a former minister and Macron ally who heads a government think-tank, carried out an analysis in May that found a “radical push” to find the money for defence would be needed, accompanied by honesty with the public about the difficult choices ahead.
“Given our worse starting point on debt, we’ll have to make more of an effort than other countries,” said Beaune.
“In France, and this is probably different than elsewhere, we also cannot go back on our deficit reduction goals, nor can we raise taxes since they are already very high.”
Beaune’s report instead recommends a combination of state spending curbs, economic reforms to expand the labour force and European joint borrowing, although there is no consensus in favour of such borrowing among EU member states.
France has racked up a mountain of national debt to reach a debt-to-GDP ratio of 113 per cent last year, behind only Greece and Italy. The budget deficit was also among the highest at 5.8 per cent of GDP at the end of 2024, far higher than the EU limit of 3 per cent.
The situation leaves Macron in a bind. The French leader has made it a priority to rebuild the military following decades of cuts after the cold war. France passed successive multiyear military budgets running from 2019 to 2030 that aim to repair its degraded forces.
Under those plans, annual spending excluding pensions is due to increase from €36bn in 2019 to a forecast €67.4bn in 2030, or by almost 90 per cent. Experts have warned that gains from this spending will be at least partly eroded by inflation.
France must spend to maintain its nuclear warheads, submarines, fighter jets, an aircraft carrier and roughly 200,000 personnel. It also wants to recruit more reservists. The nuclear capability accounts for around 13 per cent of the overall equipment budget.
In March, Macron asked prime minister François Bayrou to come up with options for increasing military spending while keeping deficit-cutting promises.
Bayrou has not done so, saying that he is still working on the 2026 budget, a delay that has irritated Macron, said people close to the president.
Macron has ruled out raising taxes, saying instead that “tough choices and courage” were needed to enable higher military spending.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Macron has advocated for Europe to become an independent military power while also backing Kyiv with weaponry. But critics say his message has been undermined by France lacking the means to send as much military aid to Ukraine as Germany and the UK have done.
“If France wants to remain a military leader in Europe then we have to set an example with our actions, not just our words,” said Dominique de Legge, a senator from the conservative Les Républicains party.
A report by de Legge found that funding for Ukraine and a French troop deployment to Nato’s eastern flank had caused cost overruns in 2024, prompting the armed forces ministry to delay payment on bills of around €8bn.
Industry has complained that few orders have been placed this year despite Macron’s promises of a “war economy”.
Experts warn that while the current planned increases through 2030 look big on paper, there will be no step change in fighting abilities. New weapons are also more expensive, so France will end up with fewer Rafale jets — 225 in 2035 versus 254 in 2021 — and fewer tanks, with 200 in 2035 down from 222 in 2021, despite spending more.
Critics say France’s strategy of having the full range of military capabilities — modelled on much larger armies like the US — means it ends up with a “bonsai army”, a reference to the Japanese art of cultivating miniature trees. But its sub-scale forces are incapable of prolonged war, said Élie Tenenbaum, a defence expert at the Paris-based Ifri think-tank,
A French official said that “scaling back planned increases to the military budget is not at all on the table” for next year and efforts would be made to maintain existing spending plans through 2030.
Meanwhile, the armed forces ministry has been working on identifying capability gaps to be filled if France does move towards new Nato targets. “It’s silly to commit to spending more without a strategy,” said the official, adding that defence contractors would also need time to expand.
Government officials and lawmakers said they were not worried about the country losing its status as a top European military power because its nuclear arsenal would continue to set it apart. France’s nuclear doctrine and capabilities, such as having submarines and fighter jets, mean it is in sole control of its defence strategy.
Some European countries like Germany and Poland have expressed interest in France more explicitly extending protection to its neighbours as they fret about relying on the US nuclear umbrella.
Officials and lawmakers also argue France has a culture of thinking strategically about its military, and its armies have conducted operations abroad such as in the Sahel and Afghanistan.
In keeping with his pro-European stance, Macron has called for the EU to go further to help member states re-arm, both by enacting common borrowing mechanisms used during the Covid-19 pandemic, and by facilitating more joint weapons programmes and purchasing.
He views new policies unveiled by the European Commission in March as too limited because they rely largely on enabling more national borrowing, a strategy that will not help countries that already have high debts.
Under the EU plan, countries can get temporary suspensions of EU deficit caps to boost military spending by up to 1.5 per cent of GDP. As of late April, 16 countries have applied for the so-called national escape clause, including Germany and Poland.
But France currently has no intention to do so, the official said, since it fears spooking bond investors and adding to already high interest costs.
Last year France paid €59bn in borrowing costs, a higher sum than the defence budget. The national auditor has said that could rise to €67bn this year and €107bn by 2029 — more than on education spending, its biggest current budget line.
France may take part in another part of the EU plan, which will provide EU-backed loans for countries to jointly buy weapons.
“There is a significant risk that France will be passed by neighbouring countries like Germany and Poland, who are working hard to increase military spending quickly,” said Tenenbaum.
“We tend to think of ourselves as the only serious players, but that’s not really true.”
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