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US-led mediators have sent the final draft of a ceasefire proposal to Israel and Hamas after a “breakthrough” in talks over a deal to end the war in Gaza and secure the release of hostages.
People familiar with the matter said it left the warring parties the closest they have been to ending the 15-month conflict since at least July, when an earlier push broke down.
“The final deal is now with all sides for approval,” a diplomat briefed on the talks said.
“A breakthrough was reached around midnight in Doha . . . The mediators put the responsibility on both sides to agree to the deal,” the diplomat added. “The next 24 hours will be pivotal to reaching the deal.”
It came after a flurry of diplomacy involving US president-elect Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Israeli spy chief David Barnea and Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani.
The US, Qatar and Egypt have for months struggled to broker a deal to end the conflict and secure the release of about 100 hostages held in the besieged strip, over a third of whom are no longer believed to be alive.
But the talks gathered momentum after the election of Trump, who has repeatedly demanded all hostages be released before his inauguration on January 20. He has warned that, otherwise, there would be “all Hell to pay”.
A person familiar with the talks said: “We are 98 per cent close.”
“We are now at a pivotal point in the negotiations,” US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. “We are close to a deal and it can get done this week . . . It is there for the taking and we are going to work to make it happen.”
Mediators have, however, spoken of previous periods of optimism that they were closing in on a deal. These were dashed by the warring parties refusing to make the necessary concessions to push an agreement over the line.
The mediators now have to wait for the responses from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and Hamas’s leadership.
A second person familiar with the talks said Israel was waiting for Hamas’s leadership to approve the latest proposal, before the parties “go into closing negotiations”.
“We are not there yet but there is a potential for real progress. The next 48 hours will be critical,” the person said. “At the very least the goal is to get a framework agreement by January 20 [Trump’s inauguration], but the hope is that it’s more.”
The shift in Netanyahu’s position is down to the fact that ending the war has become a priority for Trump, the person said. “The only difference is Trump. Netanyahu does want to align with Trump” and get a deal.
Mediators have for months been seeking to broker a multiphase agreement to end the conflict that erupted after Hamas’s militants rampaged through southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and seizing 250 hostages.
Israel’s thunderous retaliatory offensive in Gaza has killed more than 46,000 people according to Palestinian health officials, and reduced much of the besieged strip to wasteland.
Disagreements have included where Israeli troops redeploy, the return of displaced Palestinians to the strip’s north, and how many and what category of Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange for hostages.
Israel has also demanded that Hamas identify which hostages are still alive.
Hamas has insisted any arrangement end with a permanent ceasefire and Israeli troops fully withdrawing from Gaza, something Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected.
The latest talks have been based on the multiphase proposal, which would lead to an initial six-to-eight week truce, during which about 34 hostages, including women, the elderly and wounded would be released.
Several hundred Palestinian prisoners would be released from Israeli jails in return. Hamas issued a statement on Monday saying: “Our prisoners’ freedom is near.”
However, Netanyahu is expected to face resistance from far-right allies in his ruling coalition opposed to halting the war and releasing Palestinians convicted on terrorism offences. Still, analysts expect the veteran premier to have the votes to approve the deal.
Far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich had previously threatened to topple the government if a deal was agreed. Their opposition is believed to have been decisive in scuttling past rounds of talks, according to several people familiar with talks.
Smotrich, the Israeli finance minister, said on Monday that the impending deal was a “catastrophe” and “surrender”. In a statement, he urged Israel to “conquer and cleanse the entire Strip” and “open the gates of hell on Gaza” until Hamas capitulated and released the hostages.
Netanyahu met with both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich on Sunday night in a bid to persuade them not to leave the government over a ceasefire deal.
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