Italy links Ukraine aid to ‘negotiated settlement’ efforts

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Italy’s defence minister Guido Crosetto has called for greater diplomatic efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, despite Kyiv’s warnings that Moscow has no intention to do so.

Crosetto told a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday that Italy would seek “a dual-track strategy” with military support for Kyiv to be coupled with more engagements towards a “negotiated settlement”.

“We must be realistic and cannot ignore the military situation on the field,” Crosetto said as lawmakers approved more bilateral aid to Kyiv. “The time seems to have come for effective diplomatic action.”

Italy has long seen itself as a bridge between Russia and western Europe, given the Italian communist party’s strong relations with the Soviet Union during the cold war. When Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many feared Rome could prove a weak link, particularly after the unexpected collapse of former prime minister Mario Draghi’s government, an event in which many Italians suspected a Russian hand.

But Giorgia Meloni, the rightwing premier who succeeded Draghi, has been fierce in her denunciation of Russia’s aggression and her support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine.

Crosetto insisted his call for diplomacy did not reflect a weakening of Rome’s support for Kyiv or its determination to achieve a “just peace” and warned that abandoning Ukraine would have major repercussions for European security.

Yet in a sober analysis of Ukraine’s military and political strengths, Crosetto, who was previously president of Italy’s defence industry association, expressed concern about “the real Ukrainian ability to counter Russian forces . . . in a condition of persistent numerical and air inferiority”.

“Unfortunately, Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive did not give the desired results,” he said, warning that 2024 would be a “critical year” for Ukraine’s future. 

He insisted diplomatic efforts would run in tandem with continued military aid for Ukraine — of which Italy is now preparing an eighth package, just as it has assumed the presidency of the G7.

“We have two paths: that of aid without ‘ifs and buts’ — and that of attempting to build a diplomatic path that brings us to the end of the conflict,” he said. “The coming months will have to balance deterrence and diplomacy.”

But Crosetto also said talks could only begin if Russia ceased its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. “We can start talking when the bombs stop falling,” he said. “We have to convince those who are attacking to stop.” 

Changes in the political climate in Kyiv and Moscow could ultimately lead to a breakthrough, he said.

“In Ukraine, the domestic front no longer appears as united as in the past in supporting President Zelenskyy’s policies, highlighting some political differences,” he said. Putin too was faced with economic challenges and growing war fatigue among the Russian population, he added.

But Zelenskyy has remained firm — and domestic polls show overwhelming support for his position — that there can be no negotiations with Russia until Putin’s forces completely withdraw from Ukrainian lands.

Russia’s leader has also shown no interest in negotiating unless Ukraine capitulates, Zelenskyy has said. Any deal to stop the fighting now would be a move that allows Russia to regroup and prepare for new attacks on Ukraine, Kyiv argues.

“I think we must pay attention to the rhetoric of the president of the Russian Federation. He is not going to stop. He wants to occupy us completely,” Zelenskyy said on Wednesday during an unexpected visit to the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, the first stop on a tour of the Baltics meant to drum up support for Kyiv’s defensive efforts.

Putin said during a nationally televised and highly stage-managed marathon press conference last month that Russia’s goals in Ukraine remained “unchanged”.

“There will be peace when we achieve our goals,” he said. He then reiterated those goals, which include the “denazification” and “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, as well as ensuring it can never join Nato.