Public support is growing in South Korea for the country to develop its own nuclear arsenal, amid rising concerns about deepening defence co-operation between North Korea and Russia and the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency.
A recent survey by the state-affiliated Korea Institute for National Unification think-tank, found that 66 per cent of respondents expressed “support” or “strong support” for an independent nuclear deterrent, an increase of 6 percentage points from last year.
When asked to choose, the number of respondents who expressed a preference for Seoul having its own nuclear weapons over relying on US troops on the Korean peninsula increased by almost 11 percentage points from the year before, overtaking support for Washington’s military presence for the first time.
“Support for South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons is broadening, and it is hardening,” said Sangsin Lee, a research fellow at KINU. “Neither the government nor either of the two main parties have adopted it as a matter of policy, but calls to discuss the option are definitely growing louder.”
The growing sophistication of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, Pyongyang’s burgeoning relationship with Moscow and Trump’s open hostility to the US-South Korea alliance have shaken confidence in Washington’s security guarantees.
The Institute for National Security Strategy, another South Korean state-backed think-tank, cited a new defence treaty between North Korea and Russia last month as it called for a “government-level review” and “public debate” on nuclear armament, among other possible responses.
Han Duck-soo, South Korea’s prime minister, told reporters last month that the country was not in a position to consider adopting nuclear weapons “for now”. But Seoul’s conservative mayor Oh Se-hoon, a possible presidential contender in 2027, on Thursday called for South Korea to acquire them immediately.
“Nuclear weapons can only be countered with nuclear weapons,” Oh told a forum on North Korean human rights. “Relying solely on South Korea-US co-operation under the US nuclear umbrella . . . poses significant limitations for our security.”
While North Korea has its own nuclear arsenal, Seoul relies upon its US ally for “extended deterrence” — the understanding that Washington is willing to deploy its military assets, including if necessary its nuclear weapons, in South Korea’s defence.
The US strongly opposes South Korea developing its own nuclear arsenal, which it fears could trigger a regional arms race and endanger global non-proliferation efforts.
But North Korea’s increasingly advanced weapons capabilities — and its leader Kim Jong Un’s decision to amend the regime’s nuclear doctrine to permit pre-emptive strikes in a wide range of scenarios — pushed some South Korean lawmakers last year to call for a re-evaluation of their weapons policy.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has sought to offer Seoul greater security assurances, promising closer consultation on nuclear issues last year and regularly deploying nuclear-capable military assets to the Korean peninsula. Biden reiterated the US commitment to defend South Korea on the sidelines of the Nato summit in Washington on Thursday.
But the debate was rekindled last month when Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new “strategic partnership” that included a clause on mutual assistance, according to Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think-tank in Washington. The pact “revived fears in South Korea about whether US extended deterrence will be enough”, she said.
KINU’s Lee said the survey also found a correlation between fears of a second Trump presidency after elections in the US in November and support for a South Korean nuclear arsenal. Trump repeatedly questioned the value to the US of a military presence on the Korean peninsula during his presidency.
“It seems the more people fear Trump’s return, the more likely they are to turn to nuclear weapons for reassurance,” he said.
But he added that the longer-term trend in public opinion was probably “driven by a more general sense of growing global instability, given tensions between the US and China and events in Ukraine and the Middle East”.
While he noted that the KINU survey was conducted before the Kim-Putin summit and Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, “the events of recent weeks are only likely to reinforce the trend”.
Analysts said other options being debated in South Korea included the US redeploying smaller tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula, Nato-style “nuclear sharing” with the US or pursuing a nuclear “breakout” capability whereby South Korea would develop the capacity to produce nuclear weapons at short notice.
“We should move at least to the point of equipping ourselves with potential capabilities to go nuclear whenever we decide to do so,” said Han Dong-hoon, a candidate for the leadership of the ruling People Power party, last month. “There are limitations to relying solely on our allies.”
Toby Dalton, co-director of the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said there were some assurances that US policymakers could not offer their South Korean counterparts, such as committing to meeting any North Korean nuclear attack with a nuclear response.
“The resurfacing of the pro-nuclear weapons discussion in South Korea is driven by justifiable concerns about the threat from North Korea and the potential for political change in the US,” said Dalton. “But placing one’s security in the hands of another party is inherently an exercise in trust; an ally can never be fully and perpetually reassured.”
Lee at the Stimson Center noted that the number of South Korean politicians and policymakers calling for Seoul to adopt nuclear weapons was “still relatively small”.
She added that nuclear advocates’ repeated questioning of Washington’s commitment to South Korean defence risked undermining public confidence in the alliance as well as encouraging Pyongyang.
“If South Koreans are sceptical about the US commitment, the North Koreans will also question whether Washington would come to South Korea’s aid,” she said.
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