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Nikki Haley and groups supporting her have spent twice as much as her rivals on advertising in recent weeks, as the former South Carolina governor seeks a knockout blow in the early-voting states to become the main challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.
Haley’s campaign and affiliated groups have spent nearly $11mn on ads running between Christmas and the New Hampshire primary. That is $6mn more than former president Trump and $8mn more than Florida governor Ron DeSantis, according to the most recent data from AdImpact.
The advertising blitz comes as the former UN ambassador rises in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, two crucial early states in the Republican race, and wins the backing of donors and others impressed with her debate performances and relatively moderate stance on abortion.
Haley’s rise has also made her the target of attacks from rivals hoping to halt her momentum just weeks ahead of the Iowa caucus on January 15, and the New Hampshire primary on January 23.
“You don’t need any more evidence of Nikki Haley’s momentum than Donald Trump beginning to attack her,” said Republican strategist Devin O’Malley, a top campaign official for former vice-president Mike Pence.
“But the calendar is in Nikki Haley’s favour, and she can capitalise on that with the resources and endorsements she’s secured. Nikki Haley is primed to be the last candidate standing to take on Trump head-to-head.”
Haley’s bump in the polls has coincided with mounting problems in the campaign for DeSantis, who began the race as Trump’s top threat but has struggled to expand his support beyond orthodox conservatives.
Never Back Down, the $130mn, pro-DeSantis super Pac, had two chief executives, the board chair, chief strategist Jeff Roe and other staff head for the exits. Never Back Down’s $20mn-plus megadonor, Robert Bigelow, has flipped to Trump.
But Haley has had her own mis-steps, including failing to mention slavery when asked about the cause of the civil war at a New Hampshire town hall this week. “I think the cause of the civil war was basically how government was going to run, the freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do,” she said.
Haley later acknowledged on a local radio show: “Of course the civil war was about slavery.”
Andrew Romeo, DeSantis’ spokesperson, said: “If Nikki Haley whiffs on a question as simple as the underlying cause of the civil war, how can she win the Republican nomination or defeat [President] Joe Biden in November?”
While DeSantis and Haley have been fighting on the debate stage for weeks, the Trump campaign has also started to target Haley. MAGA Inc, the super Pac backing the former president, recently launched ads in New Hampshire attacking her for reversing her position on a proposed gas tax years ago — a claim her campaign has disputed.
SFA Fund, a pro-Haley super Pac, responded with an ad touting her pledge to eliminate the federal gas tax, her record of slashing taxes on small businesses, and stressing the 51-year-old’s relative youth compared to Trump, 77, and Biden, 81.
“Want an 80-year-old name from the past,” says the narrator in one of her campaign adverts, over images on the screen of Trump and Biden. “Or a new generation of conservative leadership?”
But like her other rivals in the race, Haley has a steep hill to climb to catch Trump. Some mega donors have remained on the sidelines, convinced that no amount of money will shake the former president’s grip on the Republican party. The anti-Trump GOP is also still splintered.
In Iowa, governor Kim Reynolds has endorsed DeSantis, who retains a small lead over Haley in most of the state’s polls, but a huge deficit to Trump. Chris Sununu, the governor of New Hampshire, has backed Haley.
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie has rebuffed calls from anti-Trump Republicans to drop out, even though a new poll showed Trump and Haley tightening significantly in New Hampshire, where Christie has bet his candidacy and is polling in low double digits.
Haley has enjoyed a slow but steady rise to capture roughly a fifth of the early state electorate — appealing to relatively moderate, highly educated Republicans who oppose Trump.
She also recently earned the support of the libertarian Koch network, which considers her the best chance to defeat Trump and Biden.
With the start of the race just weeks away, however, Haley and DeSantis will need to quickly broaden their appeal to mount a more significant challenge to the former president.
Recent polls show Trump with about 50 per cent of support in Iowa, more than 30 points ahead of DeSantis, and about 44 per cent in New Hampshire, about 18 points ahead of second-placed Haley, according to ABC News’ 538.
The 2024 GOP race could essentially be over before Super Tuesday — the March 5 showdown when 16 states hold their votes — if Trump wins South Carolina’s primary on February 24. Haley, the former governor, trails the former president by almost 30 points in her home state.
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