Elections in Catalonia on Sunday are set to be a test of Pedro Sánchez’s controversial amnesty for separatists, as rivals clash over whether the Spanish premier has calmed regional tensions or given the independence movement the upper hand.
Nearly seven years since an explosive Catalan bid for independence plunged Spain into its worst political crisis in decades, regional elections are highlighting a deep rift between voters who want to remain part of Spain and others who want to break away.
The Catalan arm of Sánchez’s Socialist party, led by Salvador Illa, wants to form the first government led by an anti-independence party in 14 years. It is leading in the polls with its message that the amnesty for people involved in the illegal 2017 bid was a way to turn the page on separatism.
But close behind Illa and the Socialists in the race is hardline separatist Carles Puigdemont, leader of the Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) party, who led the failed split attempt and is vying to return to his former role as regional president and “resume the task of October 2017”.
Puigdemont fled Spain crouched on the back seat of a Škoda and went on to live in Belgium as a fugitive from Spanish justice. He pressed Sánchez into granting the amnesty and will be its most high-profile beneficiary — but he is campaigning from France because it has not yet become law.
Ignacio Lago Peñas, professor of political science at Pompeu Fabra university, said the vote will reflect starkly different views of where Catalonia should go after the amnesty — which would reprieve hundreds of people — as well as the pardons Sánchez granted to nine leaders in 2021.
“This election is about whether we think the recent actions of the Spanish government are the way to reach consensus and a peaceful, non-traumatic resolution,” he said, “or whether we want to continue in the vein of conflict by opting for non-negotiated independence.”
Sánchez added extra drama with his startling decision to take five days off work in April to decide whether he wanted to carry on as prime minister, a move prompted when rightwing “harassment” culminated in a corruption investigation into his wife.
Illa, a close ally of Sánchez who campaigned with him in recent days, sought to meld the episode with his message that the Socialists are a force for moderation and public service as opposed to confrontation.
In a swipe at both conservatives and Puigdemont, he said Sánchez was leading the “resistance against those who understand politics only as a struggle for power without limits”. Illa has pledged to improve schools, tackle drought, install more wind and solar power, and cut poverty.
Puigdemont, by contrast, slammed Sánchez for putting on a “farcical” show. “We don’t trust him one bit,” he said. “With this man you have to wear three layers of latex gloves to deal with him.”
A central plank of Puigdemont’s campaign is that he says he will be able to extract more concessions from Sánchez, in addition to the amnesty, because the premier needs his party’s seven votes in the national parliament to reach a majority and pass legislation.
Puigdemont’s main goal is to hold another referendum on Catalan independence, this time with the agreement of the Spanish state, although Sánchez’s government has ruled out any such vote. He also wants Catalonia to win the power to collect taxes and he wants Madrid to cancel the debt the region owes the Spanish state.
There is a chance the regional election will lead to deadlock. According to a poll of polls published by El País newspaper, the Socialist party is set to secure 28-29 per cent of the vote while Junts is on track for 21 per cent.
But neither party looks likely to secure an outright majority in the Catalan parliament, opening the way for weeks of negotiations over potential pacts that could span the left-right or separatist-unionist spectrums.
The kingmaker with the key to a majority could be a party on course for a poor performance. Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan Republican Left), a more moderate pro-independence party, has led the regional government since 2021, initially in a coalition with Junts. But its limited achievements mean its vote share is set to drop to about 17 per cent.
On the amnesty, Illa, who was Sánchez’s health minister for part of the pandemic, has acknowledged the fierce opposition it has generated — including in his own party — but called it a difficult but necessary step.
“What I see in Catalan society is a desire to leave behind this period [which culminated in the 2017 referendum] and open a new chapter,” he told foreign correspondents. “There has been a very important improvement in the social climate in Catalonia . . . And the amnesty law is, in my opinion, working well and helping to consolidate that trend.”
One poll in March showed that 58 per cent of Catalans supported the amnesty but that across Spain it was opposed by 62 per cent of people. Critics say it trashes the principle of equality before the law.
If the amnesty becomes law as expected this month or in June, it promises to extinguish the charges Puigdemont faces of disobedience and misuse of public funds. But each individual case must be ruled on by judges.
Puigdemont has pledged to return for the swearing-in of a new Catalan president even if he still risks arrest.
Jordi Mas, a lecturer in political science at the Open University of Catalonia, described Puigdemont as a “symbol of resistance” for many Catalans who “deserves a decent return”.
“If Puigdemont wins, what will happen? Nothing. There will not be independence. Not now, not in 10 years. But some still want to believe that if Puigdemont comes back magical things will happen,” he said.
“Others just want Puigdemont because they know that he makes Spanish people very angry . . . It’s just like when Barcelona wins against Real Madrid.”
Additional reporting by Carmen Muela in Madrid
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