A resurgent campaign by Yemen’s Houthi rebels against commercial ships in the Red Sea is set to deter many shipowners from returning to the key trade route without the promise of naval protection.
The Iranian-backed militants, who control large areas of Yemen, have regrouped since a ceasefire with Washington in May ended a series of damaging US strikes on their positions and stockpiles. They are expected to continue their attacks after sinking two ships this week, said analysts and industry figures.
The assault on one of the ships, the Liberian-flagged Eternity C cargo vessel, killed at least one person, the vessel’s manager said, while another four had not been seen since the sinking and 10 were unaccounted for. The US has accused the Houthis of kidnapping several crew members.
They were “much more aggressive” attacks than in the past, said Martin Kelly, head of advisory for maritime security experts EOS Risk Group. “They’ve had six months to replenish their stocks of anti-ship missiles and [sea drones], which could be a factor.”
Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemeni expert on the Arabian Peninsula at Chatham House, said: “The Houthis needed to buy time because they were hit very badly by the American air strikes. And now they want to resume.”
The ceasefire deal ended a 52-day US bombing campaign aimed at punishing the Houthis for attacks on international shipping.
Shifts in the US military presence in the region presented an opening for the Houthis to attack this week, said Robert Peters of Ambrey, a maritime risk management company involved in the rescue operations.
“They’re no longer present in that part of the Red Sea, which they used to be, even with an aircraft carrier,” Peters said. “In the past, the Americans were literally destroying Houthi boats over the course of these incidents.
“Neither of [the ships that were attacked] was under the protection of a naval force at the time of the transit. So basically, the Houthis have free rein at this point to go for these vessels.” EU naval forces in the region were otherwise occupied, Peters said.
One maritime security expert, who asked not to be identified, said international naval forces in the southern Red Sea region had made it clear this week that they would not provide additional protection.
Since the Houthis began their campaign in the Red Sea following the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, scheduled vessels such as container ships and car carriers have largely deserted the Suez Canal route between Asia and Europe. Instead they have taken the far longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope.
Ships that operate on a non-scheduled basis, such as dry bulk carriers and oil tankers, have been more loyal to the Red Sea but their numbers still dropped steeply, with a small recovery from late March ahead of the latest attacks, according to London-based Clarksons Research.
The Houthis have claimed they are attacking ships linked to Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, though such links have often been tenuous in practice. The group has said it will keep attacking until “the aggression on Gaza stops and the blockade is lifted”.
The earlier lull in Houthi attacks also accompanied a truce in Gaza that lasted from January to March. By this month, the crew of the Magic Seas — the first of the two vessels attacked this week — had become accustomed to the relative peace and assumed the assault was from pirates, not Houthis, said Michael Bodouroglou, chief executive of Athens based Stem Shipping, which operates the ship.
“It soon became obvious they were Houthis,” he said, “because there were more and more, and there were missiles.”
The militants attacked with unmanned explosive boats, then with missiles, and finally, after the crew abandoned ship, it was scuttled with explosive charges. The crew of 22 were rescued by a passing ship.
Bodouroglou said his vessels avoided the Red Sea throughout 2024 with the support of charterers, his company’s customers, but had assessed the risks of the Magic Sea’s last voyage as “low to moderate”.
“In the last few weeks and months, the charterers, almost unanimously, were willing and eager to go through the Red Sea . . . we also saw that the insurance companies were eager again to offer war insurance.”
Since this week’s attacks, insurance costs for vessels transiting the Red Sea have surged again.
Al-Muslimi said Washington’s ceasefire with the Houthis, which did not include Israel, “could not have lasted any longer” and was an “‘optics deal’ in which both the Houthis and the Americans had to look like they won, but no one won and no one guaranteed the other anything”.
The latest attacks came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited US President Donald Trump in Washington. The pair discussed a potential fresh ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, though significant differences remain.
They also came after conflicts with Israel weakened Iran and Lebanon’s Tehran-backed Hizbollah militant group.
Al-Muslimi said it would be “naive to assume the Iranians are not on board” with the fresh outbreak of attacks.
“The Houthis are looking for any way to avoid dealing with domestic issues, but also to act on behalf of the axis of resistance,” he added, referring to the Iranian-led network of anti-Israel militant groups that also includes Hizbollah and Hamas. “As long as there is a war in Gaza, we should not expect the Houthis to behave.”
Bodouroglou said that he would consider any voyage through the Red Sea “high risk”. “We won’t do that for the time being,” he said.
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