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Russia has knocked out or captured more than half of Ukraine’s power generation, spurring rolling blackouts nationwide and heightening fears about the future of energy supplies to Ukrainian cities and EU customers.
Moscow’s missile and drone attacks in recent months have homed in on Ukrainian power plants, forcing energy companies to impose nationwide shutdowns while scrambling to repair the damage and find alternative supplies.
Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s domestic energy production was around 55 gigawatts of electricity, among the largest in Europe. That power generation capacity has currently dropped below 20GW, due to bombardments or to Russian occupation taking those plants offline, according to Ukrainian officials.
A Russian attack on Saturday struck energy facilities in five regions, causing significant damage, said Kyiv energy minister German Galushchenko.
The latest strikes have also targeted pumping facilities for underground natural gas storage being used by EU customers. Though these pumps can be easily replaced, the attacks do highlight concerns about security of supply come winter — both for domestic use and exports to the bloc.
The EU’s ambassador in Kyiv, Katarina Mathernova, said that since March, “Russia has destroyed [a] whooping 9.2GW of energy generation” in Ukraine. She added that she was meeting officials to establish what their “urgent energy equipment needs” were in order to “help alleviate the impact of continuous Russian missile attacks on energy infrastructure”.
Russia’s first aerial bombardment campaign in the winter of 2022-23 targeted the country’s electrical distribution grid — which could be repaired relatively easily, according to officials and experts. But the latest barrages are zeroing in on thermal and hydroelectric power plants which will be much harder and more expensive to fix, rebuild or replace, they said.
One Ukrainian government official described Saturday’s assault as “devastating” while another said it was likely to mean that by winter residents would be spending a vast majority of their day without electricity.
Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the press. One of the officials said 1.2GW of power generation was lost in Saturday’s bombardment alone, while infrastructure critical for transporting gas from underground storage facilities in western Ukraine was badly damaged.
Asked what the damage would mean for the months ahead, one of the officials put it bluntly: “We should prepare for life in the cold and the dark.”
“This is our new normal,” the second official said, gesturing outside a window to the darkness that had descended on Kyiv during a recent emergency power shutdown.
Ukraine’s leadership has blamed the recent destruction on insufficient air defences being provided by western allies. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian missiles were able to hit Kyiv’s largest thermal power plant in April because Ukrainian forces had run out of munitions.
Zelenskyy has urged his allies to send more interceptors and air defence batteries — but so far only Germany and Italy have pledged to do so.
Russia’s aim appears to be to make life untenable for Ukrainians, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, told the Financial Times. He described plans to set up a “decentralised energy system” relying on more mini-power plants that would be less vulnerable to Russian attacks.
European countries have so far donated 120 shipments of critical energy equipment and tools to Kyiv to help shore up and repair the energy system.
In addition to increasing imports of EU electricity from 1.7GW to 2.4GW and bringing more gas-fired energy plants online, Ukraine’s leadership will have to adopt further unpopular tariff hikes, according to Borys Dodonov, head of energy and climate studies at the Kyiv School of Economics.
“If no measures are taken, according to our modelling, then probably the population will have only two to four hours of electricity [per day] in January,” said Dodonov.
On Friday, Ukrainian authorities doubled energy prices in a bid to fund the reconstruction effort but they still fall short of market rates.
Lytvynenko said Ukraine was also trying to increase its use of green technology, such as solar panels and wind turbines. While these are seen as crucial for Ukraine’s future energy security, they require foreign investment which given the country’s risk profile is difficult to attain.
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