Sandfire Resources Limited (OTCPK:SFRRF) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call April 26, 2023 10:00 PM ET
Company Participants
Brendan Harris – Managing Director, Chief Executive Officer
Jason Grace – Chief Operating Officer
Matt Fitzgerald – Chief Financial Officer
Richard Holmes – Executive of Growth
Dave Wilson – Head of Technical Services
Ben Crowley – Head of Investor Relations
Conference Call Participants
Hayden Bairstow – Macquarie
Rahul Anand – Morgan Stanley
Kaan Peker – RBC
Daniel Morgan – Barrenjoey
Ben Lyons – Jarden Securities
David Radclyffe – Global Mining Research
Lyndon Fagan – JPMorgan
Operator
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Sandfire Resources’ March 2023 Quarterly Results. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation, followed by a question-and-answer section. [Operator Instructions].
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Ben Crowley, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ben Crowley
Good morning, good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us today on the call to discuss our March 2023 quarter. It’s my pleasure today to introduce for the first time, Sandfire’s new Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Brendan Harris. Also speaking on today’s call will be Jason Grace, our Chief Operating Officer; and Matt Fitzgerald our Chief Financial Officer. And also in the room for Q-&-A we have Richard Holmes, Executive of Growth; and Dave Wilson, our Head of Technical Services.
So without further ado, I will hand over to Brendan.
Brendan Harris
Thanks Ben and hello and good morning from here in Perth. My name is Brendan Harris and I’d like to welcome you to our third quarter conference call, my first as CEO. As Ben said, I’m joined by Jason Grace, our Chief Operating Officer, and Matt Fitzgerald, our Chief Financial Officer.
Before we dig more deeply into the results we provided today, I’d like to make particular mention of Jason. It’s never easy leading in an acting capacity and I’m sure you’d all agree he has done an exemplary job. Thanks Jason, I’m really looking forward to achieving great things with you and the broader team.
In my first four weeks, I’m pleased to say that I’ve been particularly impressed by the energy and enthusiasm of our people, the passion they have for Sandfire and our industry. I’ve also had the opportunity to visit our MATSA mining complex in Spain, and was left with a very positive impression of the embedded potential that exists within both the geology and our installed infrastructure.
I’m obviously excited to be visiting Motheo in the second week of May. In no small part, because Jason assures me, copper concentrate will be on the ground – No pressure Jason.
Turning to the formalities of today’s call, I’d like to remind you of the various disclaimers that accompany our quarterly materials and the notes we’ve provided to help better understand our disclosures. I should also note, we’re trying something a little different today, responding to your feedback. Ben Crowley tells us you’d like less time spent on introductory remarks and more time for Q&A. So we won’t be doing a page turn. Rather, Jason, Matt and I will touch on the critical drivers of our business in around 15 minutes, before turning to an extended Q-&A discussion. We welcome all feedback following the call as we’d like to use these sessions to focus on your areas of interest.
So why Sandfire and why now? Well, as a company, we’ve established a unique and solid foundation from which to grow. We’re playing in the right place at the right time as an emerging global copper producer of significance. Of course, safety and broader risk management will always be at the core, and while I’m not one to celebrate safety outcomes, as we can ill afford to take our eye off the ball, it would be remiss of me not to mention the record low risk of 1.8 achieved in the quarter.
From a broader risk management perspective, we cannot overstate the importance of the new agreements that have secured attractive, fixed price, carbon emissions free power supply for MATSA. These agreements substantially reduced MATSA’s exposure to the spot market, particularly from CY24, and Matt will talk to this shortly.
From a production perspective, we’ve given greater prominence to copper equivalent metrics. While we will continue to provide all of the component parts so you can test and probe all aspects of performance, we feel it is important for us to communicate in a way that reflects how we think about value when making critical decisions running our Polymetallic mines. Jason will provide a fulsome update on production shortly.
So what’s happening right now? Well, as I touched on earlier, we expect first concentrate at Motheo in the coming days, in what will be an increasingly important milestone for our company. In parallel, we are fast tracking the embedded low cost expansion to 5.2 million tonnes per annum, to deliver contained copper production of around 50,000 tonnes per annum from Motheo around the end of CY24.
We’re also excited about the recent discovery at San Pedro. I won’t steal Jason’s thunder, but I can confirm I was lucky enough to eyeball core samples from our latest step out hole on my recent visit.
With that, I’ll hand over to Jason.
Jason Grace
Thank you very much, Brendan, and if we look at operations and projects for the March quarter, and starting with MATSA. Mining continued across all three mines with the Aguas Teñidas and Sotiel mines delivering production rates that either met or slightly exceeded expectations. At Magdalena, and as previously indicated, high grade Cupriferous ore from the MATSA to the East section of the mine was accessed during the March quarter, albeit at a slower production rate, deliberately designed to manage stability and minimize dilution.
While we saw an improvement in overall mining rates achieved at Magdalena during the period when compared with the December quarter, productivity rates remained approximately 15% below plan and included some additional polymetallic ore from the MATSA to Centro and the MATSA to west areas of the mine.
The lower mine production rate from Magdalena in turn constrained ore processing throughput and resulted in lower copper metal production than planned, with zinc, lead and silver production exceeding expectations.
Operationally, we also saw further benefits of mining at this slower rate in the MATSO to the East area. This delivered more stability in the mine plan and a more predictable blend for ore processing, which in turn facilitated an increase in copper metallurgical recoveries during the quarter.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter and full year, we will continue with this operating strategy at Magdalena. This is forecast to increase the proportion of polymetallic ore being extracted, producing lower annual copper production and offset by higher levels of zinc, lead and silver, and is forecast to deliver combined metal production within 1.4% of guidance on a copper equivalent basis.
In line with this, we are providing updated financial year 2023 production guidance from MATSA of approximately 98,000 tonnes of copper equivalent with lower copper production at approximately 56,000 tonnes, largely offset by higher zinc at 86,000 tonnes, lead at 9,000 tonnes and silver production at approximately 2.6 million ounces.
Moving now to group production, at DeGrussa operations successfully transitioned to processing of oxides copper stockpiles in mid-February after completing processing of transitional ore and mineralized waste stockpiles. Processing of oxide stockpiles is based on utilizing the existing DeGrussa flotation plant with minimal circuit changes and adopting a simplistic approach to treat stockpiles with oxide reagents.
Production for the March quarter was 4,396 tonnes of copper and 5,111 ounces of gold contained. Whilst we expect processing to continue into the June quarter, no formal production guidance is provided beyond the 28,000 tonnes of copper production currently projected for the year.
At Motheo, we are very excited that first concentrate production is anticipated to occur within days and our first concentrate shipment is now scheduled for the middle of the calendar year. Construction activities are now very close to completion with several key milestones achieved during the quarter and included. First ore mine from the T3 open pit was delivered to the Motheo ROM Pad, with over 0.5 million tonnes of ore now stockpiled.
The primary crusher and course ore stockpile handling system has been commissioned and is now fully operational. The sag mill erection is now complete with the variable speed drive and motor partially commissioned and the operations team are at full strength and more than ready to take control of the site.
Based on the combined outlook for all operations, group production guidance for the year has been refined to approximately 87,000 tonnes of copper, approximately 86,000 tonnes of zinc, 9,000 tonnes of lead, 20,000 ounces of gold and approximately 2.8 million ounces of silver for a total copper equivalent production of approximately 134,000 tonnes contained.
And finally as Brendan mentioned earlier, we’re all very excited about Sandfire’s recent discovery at MATSA. On 24 January this year, Sandfire announced to the market that underground drilling at MATSA had identified a new zone of volcanic massive sulphide mineralisation, which we call the San Pedro zone. San Pedro is directly adjacent to the Aguas Teñidas mine with very encouraging widths and grades of mineralisation intersected to-date. This zone was discovered following a full geological reinterpretation of the Aguas Teñidas geology by the MATSA team and this represents the first significant exploration breakthrough under Sandfire’s ownership.
Initial step-out and closed-space drilling, infill drilling has defined a strike length already of over 400 meters in extent, with step-out drilling approximately 100 meters to the west recently completed. As Brendan touched on previously, we were fortunate enough to be able to see this drill core on a recent visit to MATSA and we’re absolutely delighted to see the extent and tenor of the intersected massive sulphide mineralization.
Looking out beyond the initial San Pedro discovery and probably more importantly, the MATSA team through their excellent work have also identified a further 2 kilometer strike length of this untested prospective horizon.
I will now hand over to Matt.
Matt Fitzgerald
Thanks Jason. Metal production drove lower revenue of $163 million for the quarter and $595 million year-to-date with over 70% of revenue coming from 62,000 tonnes of payable copper from MATSA and DeGrussa and 20% from 50,000 tonnes of payable Zinc at MATSA. Year-to-date operations EBITDA has risen to $243 million out of 41% operations EBITDA margin, with MATSA contributing $157 million and group EBITDA of $190 million [ph].
While MATSA sells its concentrates effectively on a daily basis, DeGrussa saw a build in highly marketable copper concentrate stocks with around 6,000 tonnes of payable copper available for sale in the June quarter, with concentrate from oxide processing running at around 35% copper. This impacted March quarter group revenue EBITDA and cash holdings. We also expect the final one or two DeGrussa high-grade concentrate sales to occur into the September quarter, impacting cash and working capital at 30 June.
Operating costs have stabilized and reduced across mining and processing as energy prices are pleasingly settling towards historical levels as guided following their peak in the first half of the financial year. We are seeing the impact in terms of price of new long-term power supply agreements. Higher TCRCs came into effect this quarter in line with movements in global benchmarks.
Operating cash flows at MATSA at $65 million for the quarter reflected the EBITDA result. MATSA completed its scheduled $80 million debt repayment in January following the $118 million repayment in September last year, while continuing to invest heavily in mine development across the three mines.
As previously flagged, following the ore reserve extension achieved mid-last year at MATSA, we are progressing the re-sculpting and rescheduling of the remaining $453 million MATSA debt facility to assist the generation of working capital and smooth the remaining schedule across a now much less restrictive ore reserve tail within the significant overall mineral resource. Amendments are progressing well through credit and documentation review processes.
In C1 terms, lower than planned copper production impacted unit costs. However, with the scheduled high copper and zinc production in the June quarter, we are expecting C1 unit costs at MATSA to move to around $1.50 per pound. Full-year C1 guidance at MATSA is largely flat overall, with lower copper guidance offset by higher zinc, driving higher by-product credits.
Q4 production at DeGrussa has seen further copper production to April. However, any largely unguided production in May and into June will be at a higher C1 cost and lower margin, say around 10% to 15% at $4 copper, due to the processing of the final lower-grade and lower-expected recovery stockpiles during this time. Production is scheduled to end at DeGrussa in the second half of the June quarter, with a formal sales process for DeGrussa progressing in parallel.
At our new copper mine Motheo in Botswana, we drew down the final $30 million tranche of the total $140 million, 3.2 million tonne per annum T3 debt facility with Société Générale and Nedbank, ahead of now-progressing formal discussions around the planned $200 million uplifted facility, which funds the planned A4 expansion to 5.2 million tonnes per annum processing rate, along with operating cash flows from T3.
Closing group cash was $177 million at the end of the quarter, with net debt of $415 million. While we expect group net debt to reduce with a generation of positive cash flow from MATSA and then Motheo, we will also see the initial impact of any uplifting facility at Motheo contributing to A4 expansion capital. In that regard, we look forward to updating the market on the key capital management activities over the coming weeks across both MATSA, Motheo, and also DeGrussa, as we continue our balance sheet transition focused on supporting our growth strategy.
Brendan Harris
Thanks Matt. The work you and the team are doing on the balance sheet is clearly a key enabler of our business. So before we move to Q&A, I’d like to leave you with this.
We’re primed to deliver 25% growth in copper equivalent production in the three years to FY’25. To get there we’ve defined our immediate priorities. Maintain momentum in safety performance, nothing is more important. Establish a credible pathway to reduce our carbon emissions. Lock in solar energy supply for MATSA, the last pillar in our power supply negotiations. Advance underground development and general oil body knowledge at MATSA, and optimize our planning processes to minimize dilution and increase recoveries with a focus on value over throughput.
And of course, it goes without saying, we must deliver the strong increase in production plan for the fourth quarter, ramp up Motheo safely and sustainably, and work to quickly understand the extent of San Pedro mineralization that lies at a relatively shallow depth within 100 meters of Aguas Teñidas. While we’ll sharpen our focus on the basics, as that’s our ticket to the game, it’s our growing understanding of the geology that gets me particularly excited.
So with that, can we please have the first question? Thank you.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Hayden Bairstow with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hayden Bairstow
Hey! Good morning, guys, and welcome aboard Brendan. Just a couple more from me. Firstly, on MATSA, maybe a question for Grace, just based on from the site too. I’m keen to better understand what’s actually going on at Magdalena and how quickly you think you can resolve it or is there going to be a total need for redesigning your scopes to make sure you can get more stable ground conditions to get that ultimate production rate up towards that close to 2.5?
Brendan Harris
Look Hayden, I’ll throw it to Jason. If I can just make a couple of very quick observations.
Again, first and foremost, I guess I can come at this with fresh eyes. And having gone underground at Magdalena only a couple of weeks ago, you can see that we’re operating in and around the shear zone, we don’t hide from that.
What you can also see though is that the team is doing a very good job in the circumstances. Remember, when we inherited this mine, there was very little geotechnical understanding and modeling and so to some extent it has meant the teams at times are flying a little blind. That is changing and changing rapidly because you’ve heard us talk about the geological reinterpretation work that’s being done.
That also translates to a heavy amount of work going on to remodel and understand the geotechnical characteristics of the ore body. And that, combined with the focus that we now have on every aspect of our mine planning, I think sets us up well. But again, we’re not going to rush to try and drive throughput to 4.7 million tonnes; we’ll get there. In fact, the weekend prior to my arrival on site, the team was actually running across the weekend at 4.8 million tonnes per annum throughput rates in the plant.
So we know the plant can do it, but it’s a matter of driving at the right time in a way that’s reducing that dilution effect and obviously as we said, maximising recoveries, and that’s built into our plan, because ultimately that’s going to value as we said, the value of the resource.
But Jason, over to you.
Jason Grace
Absolutely. And really to reiterate that, Hayden, we’ve been talking about this for a while. The ore body knowledge that we had, that we inherited there at MATSA was really very, very basic. And for us to be more predictive and have control and stability around, particularly around delivery of our mine plan, we need to complete that work. Now largely we’re well advanced, but certainly we’ve had this plan now for a period of time where we expect to have that full knowledge starting to come into mine plans around late 2024, so probably about another 12 months.
So one of the things you’re seeing, and coming back to your comment there about, do we need to redesign Magdalena? The answer to that is no. What we do need to do is run certain areas which are affected by particularly structures and stability. We need to run them a bit slower, so we’re making sure we’re not wasting the ore body, we’re not over-diluting it, and we’re not trying to push a bad position in terms of the production schedule.
Now, to do that we need to build up our developed stocks. We’ve been working on that for a while, but we will see that once again kick in towards the end of next year. So, the approach that we’ve been taking as Brendan said is about, if you like just reacting to the ore body and what we’re seeing, getting stability into that mine plan and compliance. And what that allows us to do is actually present a consistent or a predictable blend going to the processing plant and really deliver upside there on improved recovery and overall performance in the plant, which will deliver us better value and better metal production as well.
A –Matt Fitzgerald
And Hayden sorry, I might just add, what we don’t want people to take away from that is that therefore, as we look to next year, we’ve got significant concerns. We haven’t provided updated guidance to FY’24 today, because we are working through our planning processes and the team’s I think doing some really good work there. But what I can tell you is the preliminary estimates with, I guess a slightly moderated approach to throughput. We are still seeing the same sorts of level of equivalent metal production as was previously indicated, albeit with copper incrementally higher than what we’re expecting to see this year. So hopefully that helps.
Hayden Bairstow
Yeah, terrific. And then Brendan, I know its early days, but are you sort of planning, I don’t know, the full year result or later this year to sort of put a sort more strategic outlook for what you’re thinking in terms of Sandfire? Obviously the two core assets and both will be in production by then. Obviously you still got a fair bit of debt to deal with, but do you think you’ll be in a position later this year or is the focus really just around getting these operations humming and getting that debt level down?
Brendan Harris
Yeah, look, I guess I go back to prior experience. In a past life as you know, I was involved in the formation of a very large company from nothing on day one. And I think we learned firmly in that process that there’s value in sitting back, listening, observing and making sure you understand your context, but then coming out with real intent. And so for me, I’m very much getting around the grounds if you like. I’ve been to MATSA, I’ll get to Motheo as I said, in a couple of weeks’ time.
I’m going to meet with a number of the analysts and obviously a number of investors. It’s bringing all that together to make sure, again, that I’ve got the full context, particularly as I said, hearing from our people what’s working well, where they see the opportunities for improvement and build that in.
Now, I would say however, again, we’ve got a fantastic growth pipeline. It’s organic, it’s there. The most important thing for us is to deliver on that in the way that we’ve outlined. We haven’t talked a lot about Black Butte as well. I think you’re going to start hearing us talk more about that over the coming 12 to 18 months. Permitting is yes, it has been a challenge, but we think we’re starting to get some – if you like we’ll see some light at the end of the tunnel there. It is very hard to find copper units. It is very hard to buy them in the environment today for value and so when you’ve got them, make sure you understand them and make sure you optimize those resources to the maximum extent possible.
And we do need to understand Black Butte. I think there’s a substantial opportunity there for us to create value. And again, I look forward to talking about that more in the future. I mean, Jason was just in Black Butte. I might just very quickly pass it to him and see if there’s any observations he wants to make.
Jason Grace
Yeah. Look Hayden, as you know, I had a great trip over there. It was about three weeks ago, the week before Brendan arrived and that was deliberate. So it was about getting an update on where that project is, getting an update on thinking from the team over there and I’ll walk away. I’ve always been a believer in this project, but certainly this solidified my belief in the potential over there. I do believe we have a pathway to production over there, but we do need to do some more work to be able to get there. So I’m certainly very excited.
Hayden Bairstow
Okay, great. Thanks guys.
Brendan Harris
Thanks Hayden.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Rahul Anand with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Rahul Anand
Hi team! Thanks for the call. Brendan, welcome and best wishes for the new opportunity. I’ve got two questions. First one’s on MATSA. I just wanted to get some clarity. I mean, it’s basically a follow-up to Hayden’s. I mean, I want to get my head around sort of where we can expect the throughput rates to be. I mean, is 4.4 the right number to be thinking about future throughput rates as you try to target that reserve grade and you also try to improve recoveries and dilution?
And then also as a follow on, I mean, that 5 million tonne per annum target, is that not really something that you’re going to be focused on to begin with and you’re just basically going to try to maximize the old body value just by looking at that reserve grade and 4.7? That’s the first one. I’ll come back with a second. Thanks.
Brendan Harris
Okay. Look, great questions and thanks Rahul for the earlier remarks as well. So first and foremost, let’s be really clear. We see right now the value in actually focusing on recoveries, but particularly managing dilution to make sure we get the best value from those resources via the metal equivalent production we achieve. So in the near term, if you look in recent times, 4.4 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes is a good number. But let’s be really clear, as I said only weeks ago, the plant was running at 4.8. So it will be variable depending on where we are in the mine plan.
And I can assure you that as soon as we start to see the levels of recovery that we’ve built into next year’s plan and are being refined, and we’re starting to see again this geotechnical knowledge come through, our absolute objective is to as quickly as we can and as safely as we can, but most importantly, as sustainably as we can, is to drive to 4.7 million tonnes per annum, so that’s just on that one.
Now, I think with regards to the 5.2 million tonnes in respect of Motheo, it’s really important to realize that the way that that plant’s been developed, which is quite unique, the team’s actually been building a 3.2 million tonne or nominal 3.2 million tonne per annum project, knowing that we’re moving quickly to 5.2 million tonnes. So much of the plant has been designed at a 5.2 million tonne per annum rate.
In effect, the largest component we need is the Ball Mill to go to 5.2 million tonnes per annum, and that work is being run in parallel. So again, we think that’s going to deliver us a very rapid and low-cost expansion. Rahul, did that cover off on your questions?
Rahul Anand
Yes, it did. My 5 million tonne reference was basically in the outer years. I think at the start when the asset was acquired, that’s MATSA, it was talked about a potential run rate that would be the top of the mine plan, mines performing perfectly, plants performing perfectly, so that was sort of my question around MATSA. But look, I understand you’re probably focusing on that 4.7 million tonnes first up, but if you want to add anything to that, I’d love a bit more color.
Brendan Harris
Yes, apologies. I heard the 5.2 million tonnes, so my mistake. Look, it is a good question, as I said. Again, get stability, get consistency, get the recoveries, drive to 4.7 million tonnes and then continue to creep. I mean you’re never going to stand still. This is an industry where you have to drive continual improvement. So I don’t think we’re here to say there’s any change in that. But again, I think the critical thing for us is we’ve got to prove our ability to deliver on these numbers. That starts with the fourth quarter.
There’s a substantial uptick in production, which will not only drive revenues. It’s going to have a significant impact on costs. We need to achieve that so that you start getting the confidence that we believe you should have. Thanks Rahul.
Rahul Anand
Okay, perfect. Just one quick follow-up on that Brendan if I may. On my numbers, it doesn’t. But is this contingent on your debt restructuring plans, the ability to run at that lower run rate? I mean, you did specify that you’re expecting similar or better copper production. But does that then impact zinc, and does your debt restructuring plan make this new mine plan contingent in a way?
Brendan Harris
No, not at all. In fact, what we expect is this new mine plan is just going to deliver us better outcomes both in terms of as Jason said, that predictability, but it’s going to flow through into the financials as well. If you’re producing similar levels, brought in the same levels of metal equivalent production at lower throughput rates, that’s a good story.
Now look, I think as Matt said, and I’ve had quite a lot of, if you like, oversight of this as well, we’re progressing very well with the conversations with the banks. We don’t want to go too far because obviously you’re never done until you’re done, but as Matt said, the syndicate is working through credit approvals as we speak. So we’ll provide an update, again, as Matt said, in the coming weeks, but there’s no linkage between these two things.
Again, coming with fresh eyes, looking at what the team’s doing, this is the right way to run the business for shareholder value. And again, don’t think for one minute we’re taking our eye off the ultimate prize, which is getting those throughput rates up, but with better underlying performance.
Rahul Anand
Understood. Okay, thank you. I’ll queue back in.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Paul Young with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Paul Young
Thanks. Hi, Brendan. Hi, Jason and team. Brendan, good to connect on the call. Interested in some of your further thoughts on Matt’s and Brendan’s thing, is that it has clearly lots of exploration upside, but the mine complex has sort of struggled to get consistently above sort of 4.2 million tonne run rate since the acquisition. I see you’ve left it – to your point, you’ve left FY24 and FY25 guidance unchanged. So I’m just curious about the next sort of firm update on the medium-term mine plan you’re doing with Geotech, remodeling at the moment. When can we expect an update on the medium-term plan?
Brendan Harris
Yeah, thanks Paul. Look, we would expect having completed the annual cycle to provide a full update in the fourth quarter report, but particularly obviously when we get around the grounds and manage to see people and talk about results at the full year. So again, we look forward to that opportunity and hopefully as I indicated earlier, we’re not seeing a shift in metal equivalent production relative to what we have talked about previously, nothing material, albeit as I said, you will likely see a lot of marginally slower throughput rate for that period. So Paul, that’s probably all I can add at this stage.
Paul Young
No, that’s fine Brendan. Then switching over to, down south to Botswana and Motheo, just as far as you’re just about to start up and produce copper. As far as referencing the DFS and costs within that study and where we sit, we all know there’s been industry cost inflation. I think your last estimate, life of mine for C1 cost was about $1.50 a pound. I guess the question is, are you happy with that estimate or will you update the market also with the four-year result?
Brendan Harris
Yeah look, Jason’s living and breathing the commissioning and ramp-up profile of Motheo, so maybe I’ll throw it to him to have the first shot.
Jason Grace
Yeah Paul, look, from our point of view, we did provide an update there when we completed the $5.2 million tonne per annum feasibility study, which is fairly recent. We’ve not seen a lot of movement in costs there in Botswana at this point in time, noting that there is fairly healthy inflation rates there occurring. It does impact our labour rates, but labour rates aren’t say as high a proportion as they would be here in Australia.
So overall that $1.58 that we quoted on that C1 cost, at this point in time that’s the latest information we have. As we start to go into production, we will be updating those costs, particularly for the fourth quarter, and our estimates for next year once we start to see particularly what the processing plant is doing over the next couple of months.
Brendan Harris
Yeah Paul, I think one of the things for me, we’re obviously going to need to watch and see how that progresses. Getting the tonnes is going to be the critical piece as you know, but for me, what I’m going to be looking at most closely is everything that I’ve read and all of the study work. When it points to mineralisation, it being relatively coarse, and it should float well. Note the team’s very hopeful that it should be relatively uncomplicated, barring anything unforeseen for us to ramp up this operation. Again, it’s not metallurgically complex, so we will provide a further update obviously with the fourth quarter and then into the full year.
Paul Young
Yeah, thanks Brendan. Last one just on slide 25, the aerial sort of map of Motheo and yeah, just noticing obviously the [inaudible] Copper Project and the proximity to Motheo. I know you said that you’ve got a lot of organic growth and exploration upside at MATSA and Black Butte, you mentioned in your comments there actually. I think it’s been a tough going. But I guess the question is, you’ve got a lot of work to do and you’ve got to ramp up Motheo first and foremost, but I guess there’s an opportunity there with potentially lots of synergy. So maybe the question is that has this opportunity maybe come a little bit too soon, you know for Sandfire based and where you’re at?
Brendan Harris
Yeah look, excellent question Paul, and I knew it wouldn’t be lost on you when you looked at the map, but there is a party that sits obviously proximal to our Motheo operation. I think the first thing I’d say is, if you look at our land holding in the belt, we have a substantial land holding. So we already have the majority if you like of that acreage and our areas are relatively underexplored. So we see significant potential there and as I said earlier, this is about establishing a strategically valuable production hub.
On the flip side, as again you’ve repeated, we have a wonderful organic growth pipeline. The most important thing for shareholders is that we don’t get distracted and we deliver on our promises and we think through that we’ll obviously release substantial shareholder value. If the [inaudible] asset comes to the market, as people are suggesting it will, of course we need to look.
But again, I will never take my eye off shareholder value. I’ve always believed that M&A is a nice-to-have if it makes sense; it’s never a have-to-have, and even more so when you’ve got a business like ours with such strong embedded growth potential. So again, will we have a look? Sure. Are there synergies? Potentially. Would it likely be a competitive process? Richard Holmes is sitting here with me. I think he’d suggest it will be. But it’s never a problem to go in and see what you can learn. So I hope that’s not too vague Paul, but that’s probably all I’ll add at this stage.
Paul Young
No, that’s useful. Thanks Brendan. Next time.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Kaan Peker with RBC. Please go ahead.
Kaan Peker
Yeah, hi Brendan, Jason, Matt, Ben and team, and congrats and welcome Brendan. Just the first question is on the power agreement at MATSA. I think previously there was indications that it would be backdated to the start of CY23, and it looks like on the presentation, since we’re talking about CY24 now, I just wanted to check if all that – the power agreement covers MATSA’s needs and how that solar piece fits in there. Thanks.
Brendan Harris
Yeah, great question Kaan. So let me have a go at that and the team can chip in as needed. So when you think about this negotiation, as I mentioned earlier, an absolutely critical negotiation at that. There’s limited spot availability of excess powder in the market currently and so when you look at CY23 and the agreements are being put in place, there are a number of tranches. So the first tranche, which is call it roughly 30% of the operations power requirements, covers CY23 at a fixed price that’s actually obviously attractive and at a competitive level when we look at the current market rates.
You then have another tranche that comes in in CY24, and then that gets you up to something close, rough numbers around 60% of the operations power requirements. So again, that’s why from CY24 you’ve got much less exposure to the spot market.
The final piece in the puzzle is the solar agreements. They are at an advanced stage I might add. That would get you up to around 80% coverage hopefully from around that CY24 period or through that time horizon. That’s really what I wanted you to take away. You’re absolutely right. The first tranche that is impacting and having an effect this year was backdated to the start of 2023.
Now, why you’re seeing costs going up is not because of power. We’re seeing – if you look at the increments, you can see the benefit coming through, rather obviously lower production, but you also had a step-up in treatment and refining charges. Does that help Kaan?
Kaan Peker
Yes, sure. Just a follow-up on that…
Brendan Harris
I’m sorry Kaan. Kaan, if I can, just to I think stress. So when you look at the component of energy in the numbers that we’ve talked about today, the cost base, it’s down below 10% now as a proportion of cost. So it’s around – I think it was around 9%, in fact and it was over 20% in the peak. So really it emphasizes how we are absolutely now seeing that translate into an improvement in processing costs.
Kaan Peker
Yes, understood. Just a follow-up on that TCRC. That’s coming mainly from copper as far as I understand. I think that zinc charges are set just recently and from memory Sandfire’s TCRCs are all off annual benchmarks. Is that correct?
A – Jason Grace
Yes, it’s correct Kaan. It’s mainly from copper, so it drives about 30% of an increase in the copper side and not much on the zinc side.
Kaan Peker
Thanks. And just in the second question, I know we’ve talked about this quite at length, but just with – on MATSA’s throughput, I think maybe Jason mentioned it, but he talked about increased development over the year and possibly, I think the word he used was kicking in towards the end of the year. If everything goes to plan, is throughput right at I suppose the base case, expected to increase to 4.7 at the end of FY24?
Brendan Harris
Yes look, again, I don’t think we want to be drawn on that today. I get what you’re trying to do is work out what to put in the sell in your model. Again, what I’m focused on is what the metal equivalent output is, and to be brutally honest, I’d rather we get more metal at less throughput. So that’s why I don’t really want to be drawn on that today.
Of course, in time to get to that 4.7 number, we’ll come out with more clarity as we approach the full year. The team is right in the middle of that annual planning cycle. Unashamedly, I’m four weeks in. You can imagine I want to probe quite deeply beyond what I’ve had a chance to do today. Indeed, all going well, I’m hoping to spend a month in MATSA from mid-June into July, and again, we’ll be well-placed to come back to you in due course.
Kaan Peker
Sure, thanks. If I could squeeze one more in, it’s just on the expansion to 5.2. I think over the last couple of quarters that T4 dewatering seems to have been pushed out. Does that mean environmental approval? Thanks.
A – Jason Grace
No, look, environmental approvals are still on track. We’ve actually moved through a consultation period and we’re out for public comment at the moment. So everything as we understand at the moment is largely on track. The dewatering, in terms of the timing on that, there hasn’t been a lot of movement, but that won’t slow us down at all.
Kaan Peker
Sure, thanks. I’ll pass it on. I appreciate it.
Brendan Harris
Thanks Kaan.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Daniel Morgan
Hi, Brendan and team. My first question just relates to Motheo. When do you expect to be exiting run rates of 3.2 million tonnes per annum on phase 1? Thank you.
Brendan Harris
We expect to be there in July.
Daniel Morgan
Okay, very clear. And when you say there’s going to be a concentrated shipment mid-year, will it sneak in before 30 June? Is that the expectation or after? And I imagine that you won’t have commercial production this fiscal year, so no earnings to come through. Is that assumption correct?
Brendan Harris
Yeah look, I think at this stage, Matt’s nodding. We have been a bit cute with the comment we’ve put on sales. We’ve played around with that. It intentionally says mid-year for good reason. There is a reasonable probability that it slips into the next year. It’s very hard for us to predict. It could get right down to the wire. So, in some respects I think what we’d prefer is you assume it creeps into the next year and that there is obviously a building working capital, but at the end of the day we’re obviously focused on the bigger price.
Daniel Morgan
Yeah, very, very sensible. And then further I mean Brendan, congratulations on your role. You’re new to the business. I’m just curious on what is your plan or ambition ultimately with the Sandfire platform? What is the mandate that you sought and got from the board when you got hired? Thank you.
Brendan Harris
Yeah, thanks Dan. It’s a good way to ask the question, actually. Look, I came in here on day one and what I said to the team is I don’t have a fundamental change mandate, and the main reason for that is, as I engaged with the board and the management team in those early discussions, I could actually see very strong alignment. This is a business as I said that is primed for growth. It’s primed for growth in a commodity that the world I think is really only coming to grips with how much is going to be required to decarbonize the global economy, obviously through the major electrification process that’s underway. So we have all of the right hallmarks here.
The critical thing for me is obviously getting to know our people, making sure we embed the right culture. I think we need to find a way to embrace the culture in Spain, whilst making sure the things that we hold dear, those standard core common systems and processes are absolutely reflected there. The same goes for Botswana. And as I said, then understanding what the potential is of Black Butte.
The reality is I love the fact that we operate polymetallic mines. As you know, the major, major basin providing copper units in the world today is in South America, and many of those very large mines don’t have large by-product credits. So if you can get the productivity right out of your polymetallic mines, optimise those throughput rates, and then benefit from by-products, you’re going to be firmly entrenched, again in the cost curve below that major slate of production, and that in the environment that I see playing out over the coming years, I think positions Sandfire particularly well.
I mean, fundamentally, our objective is not about scale. It’s about how we grow shareholder value and that’s what I look forward to coming back and talking with you about when we meet at the full year. Thanks Dan.
Daniel Morgan
Paul Young asked a similar question earlier, but is M&A within the mandate you have,
and obviously there’s [inaudible] nearby, but more broadly, could you set out what might be considered and what might not be? And then what is in do you think Sandfire’s DNA to add value to any opportunities?
Brendan Harris
Look, I think it goes without saying that, again, through delivering on the commitments we’ve made around MATSA, that will increasingly build the confidence of our shareholders in our operating capabilities. Now we have that unique ability to operate underground and obviously now with Botswana moving into an open-cut setting, proving that gives us a wonderful platform.
I really don’t like to get drawn on do you do M&A or don’t you do M&A? Because frankly, I’ll be honest with you, I think shareholders expect us to do everything and anything to create and maximize shareholder value. And therefore, our job is to understand the landscape, both internally and externally, and make the right decisions and obviously we’ll be judged in the fullness of time. And again, I wouldn’t expect within Sandfire, I’d take any different approach to that.
Daniel Morgan
Okay, thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Ben Lyons with Jarden Securities. Please go ahead.
Ben Lyons
Thank you. Good day, Brendan. Welcome back. Very much looking forward to that catch-up for a cup of tea with you flagged, so please add me to your list. And obviously regards also to Jason, Matt, Ben, and the broader team of course.
Just a couple on Motheo from me please. Firstly, just a little surprise that the SAG Mill is not fully commissioned at this juncture. Yeah, it was looking pretty good there in early February, albeit I recognize that the commentary was struck at 31 March, and it’s another four weeks gone by since then. So can you talk to any specific issues in commissioning that critical bit of kit or is it pretty much online for commissioning as we speak?
Jason Grace
Thanks, Ben. Look, you’re right. On our numbers and on our detailed schedules, we’re about three and a half weeks behind where we had hoped to be, particularly at the start of the year. It doesn’t relate particularly to anything in the SAG Mill itself. SAG Mill’s looking good. The reason that we can’t commission that is we’re still completing construction on the flotation circuit. So basically, it is the last thing that needs to be completed and everything else is either imminently ready or already completed.
So the one advantage that we’ve had is that we’ve been able to commission as we go through progressively, and we expect that to ramp up fairly quickly once we get somewhere for that SAG Mill slurry to actually go to after it goes through that mill.
Ben Lyons
Awesome! Thanks very much, Jason. I appreciate that. Maybe just moving across to the ROM pad, really pleasing to see that you’ve got almost a month of high-grade ore sitting on the ROM now, 1.1% copper. Maybe a two-part question; firstly, can you clarify if that 1.1% is total contained copper or recoverable copper, obviously excluding those oxides which have never been considered recoverable? And then the second part of the question would be on the commissioning strategy, whether you stack the mill and the float tanks with the low-grade, the 0.6% ore or you kind of blend it with the high-grade or do you go straight for the high-grade? Thank you.
Jason Grace
Yeah, so I might start with that one, Ben. We have been crushing low-grade ore, so we’ll be commissioning on low-grade basically all the way through May and at least part of the way through June on current plans. We expect to be basically starting to feed some of that high-grade material coming into late June and July.
We expect as well to ramp up, and further to the questions before, we expect throughput to ramp up very quickly. Like a podium that has been our EPCM contractor, has built almost the exact same plant elsewhere in Africa, so we have good benchmarks in terms of ramp-up schedules, commissioning and ramp-up schedules on this exact plant.
So we expect that throughput will ramp up very quickly and then it will come down to basically management of the grind and the float circuit to get recoveries up. So we expect to be there pretty much in July.
In terms of the copper grades on stockpile, they are total copper, but we have estimated recoverable copper or acid-soluble copper in there as well, but overall we are seeing that level of oxidation decrease very rapidly as we progress down through the ore mine.
Ben Lyons
Excellent, thanks very much Jason. That’s really helpful. Maybe just a final one on Bots. You’ve just gone through the wet season over there. You had the added complication of Cyclone Freddie which was building in the East Coast of Africa at the same time. Just any observations you can make about what happened on the grounds versus your expectations for the wet season, whether you suffered any impact to site access for example or excess surface water or any complications with the TSF etc.? Thank you.
Jason Grace
No Ben, look overall it’s been really quite robust. Site access has been really good, so no issues whatsoever. There’s a real advantage there having the A3 highway basically within 15 kilometers of the site, so no issues in terms of supply chain and supply routes. If we look at it, no issues around water around the site at all. But what we did do was, particularly in March where we did see higher rainfall, it did slow down mine production slightly, but overall we’re seeing that even that mine production is quite robust.
Brendan Harris
Maybe Ben if I can, I just want to really take the opportunity to again reiterate the amazing job I think that the team’s done. I’ve read a number of analyst reports today and I think a few have made mention of what almost a remarkable effort is to deliver a project as they have within budget in the current climate. So firstly, I just wanted to acknowledge that.
I think just sort of to the heart of your question, I think we would have even been slightly ahead of where we are today if not for one of those sort of teething issues that you have towards the end of a project, whereby some of the workforce if you like is not necessarily as motivated to complete if they don’t have a job to go to. I think the team responded to that very quickly because we started to see a slight drop off in productivity rates, labor productivity rates in the project. They responded very quickly by putting in certain sort of milestone bonuses, etc., nothing material, but actually to get people focused on the prize again to make sure we get to that first production.
So, whilst I don’t think weather had an impact, it was arguably a labor productivity impact that just probably pushed us three or four weeks beyond where we actually hoped to be. Indeed we were hopeful only probably around one and a half months ago prior to my commencement as I understand it that we’d actually be talking about first concentrate production in the quarterly.
Ben Lyons
Yep, I got it. That’s really helpful. Thank you very much Brendan. I hope you enjoy embracing the culture in Spain and Botswana over the coming weeks.
Brendan Harris
Thanks for that. I appreciate it Ben.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from David Radclyffe with Global Mining Research. Please go ahead.
David Radclyffe
Hi! Good morning Brendan and team. So sorry for labouring the point here on MATSA capacity, but I just want to ask the question a different way given your fresh eyes, because we seem to be locked in here to the free current mines, which obviously the issue here is that you’ve got a hungry mill. So looking forward and in the long term, are we really missing here a fourth mine either found or acquired or would it make sense maybe to think about toll treating some of the regionals around given that your plant might actually be better suited to them?
Brendan Harris
Look, that’s really appreciated and I think it wouldn’t surprise you that the thread of your question is indeed something we talk a lot about here and that is the fact that I think many people think of MATSA as one mine. The reality is we have three mines with a centralized processing facility and with obviously Motheo coming on we’ll have four.
That gives me a lot of comfort, because we all know that mining is inherently volatile so first and foremost it gives us some, if you like, diversity in the portfolio first and foremost. But to your point then, the real question for us, as we start to understand mineralization like San Pedro, as we test the down plunge extension of Magdalena and too early to say, but the potential for an extension of high-grade copper, the question then is what do you do with that 4.7 million tonnes and possibly 5 million tonnes of throughput capacity? How do you feed that material into the mill to optimize value? Because it may be that the way that you want to run that facility, not only to maximize the net contained metal, but also to assist you with how you manage just that overall flow sheet, your reagents and your recoveries, it may change.
And then the question is what do you do with some of these other deposits and resources, things like Sotiel which is clearly not running at an optimized rate and how does that play into a broader strategy?
So I don’t want to be drawn on that too much right now, but you’re absolutely right that I think that is a critical question that we need to understand and particularly understand in the manner in which we could potentially unlock value that’s hidden at the moment. So, thank you for raising that. It is on our obviously focus list and its right in the crosshairs of where I think there could be value creation. But it’s just too early, because some of that depends on this geological knowledge that we’ve been talking about, understanding the mineralization potential, but a great challenge for us.
David Radclyffe
All right, brilliant. Thanks Brendan. I’ll pass it on.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Lyndon Fagan with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Lyndon Fagan
Thanks very much and congratulations Brendan. Look, the first question I had was just a follow-up on the depreciation at MATSA and I’m wondering if you’re able to give any color yet on how to calculate cash tax and the depreciation we should be using as a tax shield versus the guided depreciation of 250. Thanks.
Jason Grace
Thanks Lyndon. I think as we’ve mentioned before, you’re best to probably model it on an EBITDA minus CapEx basis for tax, for cash tax. And also the depreciation side as you said we’ve guided about 250 for the year. We’re probably in that range we think as we get there, that may, depending on the achievement of our targets in the June quarter given the all that we’re accessing in there that may be 250 to 260 in the depreciation side. But as I say on the cash tax side, I think you’re best to stick in EBITDA minus CapEx and we can add some more color to that as you as you wish.
Lyndon Fagan
Easy done. Okay, thank you. And then the other one maybe just to briefly touch on Copper TCs. They have gone up a fair bit in the quarter. I’m just wondering if this is the new run rate going forward or whether there was something unique about the quarter?
Brendan Harris
Yeah, look, I don’t think so. I think reality is it’s you know reflective as we’ve said in the note of market rates. Unfortunately given our size we’re unlikely to influence those, but I don’t know Matt if there’s anyone who’d just like to add any additional color?
Dave Wilson
Yeah Lyndon, Dave Wilson here. I guess that our treatment and refining charges in our cost of labor is driven by MATSA. It’s where the volume is in this quarter and that’s our take rate is linked to the benchmark and you’ve probably seen during the quarter the Copper benchmark went from 65 and 6.5 to 88 and 8.8, so that’s likely to mean the shift in TCs and as someone mentioned in an earlier question, I think TCs being released early in this quarter which will flow through our contract resets on a calendar year basis.
Lyndon Fagan
Okay, that’s all I had. Thanks again.
Brendan Harris
Thanks Lyndon.
Operator
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I’ll now hand back to Mr. Harris for closing remarks.
Brendan Harris
Well, thanks everyone. I really appreciate the questions and the challenges. As I said, we look forward to getting around and seeing as many of you as possible in the coming weeks and months.
It’s a pleasure to obviously be able to present the first quarterly as the CEO of Sandfire. I’m incredibly excited about the potential. It’s a marathon not a sprint. We’re going to be working hard and again, our objective is literally to see how much shareholder value we can extract from what I think is a very attractive asset portfolio.
So, thank you again and have a good day!
Operator
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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